Was the Covid Second Wave a Consequence of Lockdowns, Social Distancing and Face Masks?

 Last fall, immunologist and biotech entrepreneur Dr. Michael Yeadon argued that a Covid second wave was impossible, saying "that's not how epidemics work." The pathogen, he stated, spreads until it runs out of susceptible hosts. All those who survive infection acquire robust and durable immunity, and the population thus achieves what is known as herd immunity, which makes a second wave impossible. 

However, as it emerges, the data for many countries appear to contradict Dr. Yeadon. Thus, for example, in Britain, the second wave of Covid deaths appears, if anything, slightly greater than the first. 

There are many questions that may be raised as to the validity of the data. How many, for example, of those who died with Covid died because of Covid? And how were the reported number of Covid cases affected by the availability of tests and the reliability of tests?

Nevertheless, the available evidence raises the question: is Dr. Yeadon's understanding of epidemiology wrong, or has something weird happened that caused the Covid epidemic to follow an abnormal course? 

The latter explanation seems highly probable. 

As the first wave of Covid infections developed, many countries imposed strict limitations on human existence, confining people to their homes, and enforcing mask mandates and social distancing when people were allowed out. 

The inevitable consequence of these measures was that there remained a substantial proportion of the population unexposed to Covid, which is to say that the number of those susceptible to Covid remained much higher than would have been the case had the first wave been allowed to run its course without impediment. Inevitably, therefore, when restrictions on human interaction were relieved a second wave of infections occurred during the following winter flu season. 

In Britain the second wave was curbed, as was the first, by lockdowns, travel restrictions, working from home, etc. Now a mass Covid vaccination campaign is underway that will presumably prevent a third wave -- for now. 

Almost certainly, however, we have not seen the last of Covid, as the immunity induced by the novel mRNA "vaccines" is reported to be short-lived. So look forward to repeated outbreaks and vaccination drives. 

As to future Covid deaths, the numbers will depend largely on how those who are already near death are cared for. Already Covid has lowered life expectancy by a year and more in most countries, but the trend in declining life expectancy will continue as long as elderly hospital patients and care home residents remain at high risk of infection. 

Happily, for those under sixty, the risk of death by Covid will remain minimal with our without vaccination. 

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Is Britain's Second Wave Covid Lock-down Designed to Conceal the Absence of a Second Wave?

Earlier this year, a group of Oxford University scientists published a non peer-reviewed article on the MedArchive web site stating that:

 

Our simulations are in agreement with other studies that the current [Covid19] epidemic wave in the UK and Italy in the absence of interventions should have an approximate duration of 2-3 months, with numbers of deaths lagging behind in time relative to overall infections.  Lorenco, J. et al. March 26, 2020.

The paper was posted at MedArchive on March 26, 2020. Therefore, the prediction that the disease in the UK would transition from epidemic to endemic within 2-3 months can be evaluated by the published data.

What the data show is that Covid deaths in the UK peaked on April 20 at 1,172 and fell by 96% to 43 by June 20, i.e., three months later. Thereafter, the rate of Covid deaths in the UK has remained low and stable with a count of 24 recorded on September 24.

So, in its most important assertion, the paper was exactly correct: the epidemic wave of Covid19 that killed thousands in Britain earlier in the year is now over. Covid19 cases are still occurring in Britain, although with what frequency is unclear, but Covid-related deaths are now substantially fewer than those caused by the seasonal flu. 

Why then would the British Government introduce new lock-down measures that interrupt the education of both school children and university students, while causing massive economic costs? 

Is the answer precisely to conceal the fact that the widely touted second wave is an illusion based on dodgy or totally useless methods of assessing new infections? 

With a new lock-down even more severe than the last, the ending of the Covid epidemic, which has yet to register in the minds of most citizens, overwhelmed as they are by the mass media Covid terror campaign, will be attributed to an all-wise government, rather than to the natural progression of the disease. 

That naturally raises the question, why?

Why would the government of the UK along with governments in many other Western countries deliberately trash their own economies on the basis of a false alarm?

Suggestions invited.

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In the Northern Hemisphere, the Covid epidemic is over, for this year at least

 The Covid scare continues as governments seek to terrify the public by reporting ever increasing numbers of "cases," aka the deadly Covid19 "Second Wave." 

But what is a "case"?

Is it an illness with symptoms characteristic of a Covid19 infection or just a positive reaction on the generally unreliable (with many false positives)  Covid RT_PCR test, or something else? 

Rarely if ever is this rather important detail divulged.  

But whatever may be a "case," UK Covid deaths peaked at 1152 on April 9 and "cases" hit a peak of 6201 on May 1. "cases" then dropped by 94% to 352 on July 3, by which time the daily death toll had also fallen 94% from the April peak.

Then as the supposedly deadly "Second Wave" hit, "cases" rose to  6873 by last Friday, an 11% increase over May's peak. 

This recrudescence in "cases" seems to have turned Boris Johnson into the Great Dictator intent on locking everyone up. Funny thing, though, UK Covid deaths are down to 34, or only 3% of April's peak rate and only half of the rate at the time of the July minimum in "cases." 

The same pattern is evident in Canada and other North temperate zone countries. The US pattern is somewhat different, as the epidemic started later and is peaking later in Southern than in Northern states, a difference in pattern also seen with the seasonal flu. Nevertheless, it is now clear that the "Second Wave" is by no means comparable in lethality with the first and is not generating a significant excess death rate. 

So the epidemic of Covid-induced death in Northern countries is largely over -- for this year, anyhow. 

The only plague that remains is the pack of liars and swindlers in government intent on shrinking the economy and driving unemployment to Great Depression era levels by imposing unnecessary lockdowns, wildly spending money that central banks obediently print to the detriment of the value of your savings, disrupting education and driving a significant section of the population to a condition of clinical depression.

Related:

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 Here are some numbers on Covid survival rates from the US Center for Disease Control: 

Age  0-19  — 99.997%
Age 20-49 — 99.98%
Age 50-69 — 99.5%
Age 70+    — 94.6%

So if you are under 50, you chances of dying of Covid-19 are between extremely slight to virtually non-existent. If, like me, you are over 70, yes, Covid19 could kill you, though it probably won't, and remember, something's gonna kill you pretty soon anyhow. 

In fact, your chance of even getting Covid19 is slight. While terrorizing the population and wrecking the economy to save us from a small to negligible risk of  death, the Government of Canada has remarkably failed to gather data on the spread of this supposedly deadly virus throughout the nation. The Canadian Blood Services, however, a non-governmental charitable organization reports the following rate of Covid-19 antibody seroprevalence among healthy blood donors:

British Columbia 0.50%

Alberta 0.37%

Saskatchewan 0.46%

Manitoba 0.56%

Ontario 0.96%

New Brunswick 0.26%

Nova Scotia 0.36%

Newfoundland and Labrador 0.29%

Prince Edward Island 0.00%

Overall 0.70% 

But if you do get Covid19 and, like 99% plus of those infected you recover within a couple of weeks, then, um, so what? I mean, I had the Asian flu that killed a million people in 1958 (when world population was only 38% of what it is now), and I was back to school within a few days. For most people, the effect of Covid19 is about the same. 

But, but ... the Second Wave, that's what'll kill us all. Except that despite the lies of the scaremongering media, there is no second wave. As this Google chart shows, the Canadian Covid death toll has fallen from a peak of around 250 per day in May to a current rate of between five and six per day during September, with some days zero. That's less than one percent of the  daily death toll from all causes, which averages about 775 a day.

Covid19 like the flu, can knock you back for a week or two, or if you're old, especially if you are old and in poor health, there is a significant though small risk that it will kill you, just as can the seasonal flu or pneumonia. But that is no reason to give the dim-witted egomaniac, Justin Trudeau, the freedom to wreck the economy and impose a totalitarian regime. 

But take care. Accidents kill more Canadians — about  13,000 each year, than the 9,242 reportedly killed by Covid-19 so far in 2020. And don't be discouraged: last year 25,000 Canadians were hospitalized or killed by self-harm, and more have been driven to thoughts of suicide during the current largely manufactured Covid19 crisis. 

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