Last fall, immunologist and biotech entrepreneur Dr. Michael Yeadon argued that a Covid second wave was impossible, saying "that's not how epidemics work." The pathogen, he stated, spreads until it runs out of susceptible hosts. All those who survive infection acquire robust and durable immunity, and the population thus achieves what is known as herd immunity, which makes a second wave impossible.
However, as it emerges, the data for many countries appear to contradict Dr. Yeadon. Thus, for example, in Britain, the second wave of Covid deaths appears, if anything, slightly greater than the first.
There are many questions that may be raised as to the validity of the data. How many, for example, of those who died with Covid died because of Covid? And how were the reported number of Covid cases affected by the availability of tests and the reliability of tests?
Nevertheless, the available evidence raises the question: is Dr. Yeadon's understanding of epidemiology wrong, or has something weird happened that caused the Covid epidemic to follow an abnormal course?
The latter explanation seems highly probable.
As the first wave of Covid infections developed, many countries imposed strict limitations on human existence, confining people to their homes, and enforcing mask mandates and social distancing when people were allowed out.
The inevitable consequence of these measures was that there remained a substantial proportion of the population unexposed to Covid, which is to say that the number of those susceptible to Covid remained much higher than would have been the case had the first wave been allowed to run its course without impediment. Inevitably, therefore, when restrictions on human interaction were relieved a second wave of infections occurred during the following winter flu season.
In Britain the second wave was curbed, as was the first, by lockdowns, travel restrictions, working from home, etc. Now a mass Covid vaccination campaign is underway that will presumably prevent a third wave -- for now.
Almost certainly, however, we have not seen the last of Covid, as the immunity induced by the novel mRNA "vaccines" is reported to be short-lived. So look forward to repeated outbreaks and vaccination drives.
As to future Covid deaths, the numbers will depend largely on how those who are already near death are cared for. Already Covid has lowered life expectancy by a year and more in most countries, but the trend in declining life expectancy will continue as long as elderly hospital patients and care home residents remain at high risk of infection.
Happily, for those under sixty, the risk of death by Covid will remain minimal with our without vaccination.
