Last fall, immunologist and biotech entrepreneur Dr. Michael Yeadon argued that a Covid second wave was impossible, saying "that's not how epidemics work." The pathogen, he stated, spreads until it runs out of susceptible hosts. All those who survive infection acquire robust and durable immunity, and the population thus achieves what is known as herd immunity, which makes a second wave impossible.
However, as it emerges, the data for many countries appear to contradict Dr. Yeadon. Thus, for example, in Britain, the second wave of Covid deaths appears, if anything, slightly greater than the first.
There are many questions that may be raised as to the validity of the data. How many, for example, of those who died with Covid died because of Covid? And how were the reported number of Covid cases affected by the availability of tests and the reliability of tests?
Nevertheless, the available evidence raises the question: is Dr. Yeadon's understanding of epidemiology wrong, or has something weird happened that caused the Covid epidemic to follow an abnormal course?
The latter explanation seems highly probable.
As the first wave of Covid infections developed, many countries imposed strict limitations on human existence, confining people to their homes, and enforcing mask mandates and social distancing when people were allowed out.
The inevitable consequence of these measures was that there remained a substantial proportion of the population unexposed to Covid, which is to say that the number of those susceptible to Covid remained much higher than would have been the case had the first wave been allowed to run its course without impediment. Inevitably, therefore, when restrictions on human interaction were relieved a second wave of infections occurred during the following winter flu season.
In Britain the second wave was curbed, as was the first, by lockdowns, travel restrictions, working from home, etc. Now a mass Covid vaccination campaign is underway that will presumably prevent a third wave -- for now.
Almost certainly, however, we have not seen the last of Covid, as the immunity induced by the novel mRNA "vaccines" is reported to be short-lived. So look forward to repeated outbreaks and vaccination drives.
As to future Covid deaths, the numbers will depend largely on how those who are already near death are cared for. Already Covid has lowered life expectancy by a year and more in most countries, but the trend in declining life expectancy will continue as long as elderly hospital patients and care home residents remain at high risk of infection.
Happily, for those under sixty, the risk of death by Covid will remain minimal with our without vaccination.
What if some of the second wave is from the vaccine?
ReplyDeleteChristian Elliot write a very scary article called "18 Reasons I Won't Be Getting a Covid Vaccine" and it's in there. For anyone who has had "covid" or any of the other variations of SEASONAL FLU he makes some interesting and very infuriating points.
https://www.deconstructingconventional.com/post/18-reason-i-won-t-be-getting-a-covid-vaccine
For people who don't like ads, the enigmatic Miles Mathis PDF'd it and made it easier to print out (as I did) --
http://mileswmathis.com/covid8.pdf
Franz, thanks very much for that link. The claims set forth are truly astonishing, but in many cases difficult for a non-expert to evaluate.
DeleteThus, I have just asked Mike Yeadon, over at unz.com, if he would comment. Hopefully, he will provide further insight.
It's interesting the Mike Whitney article you linked to is titled "Pure, Unalloyed Evil".
ReplyDeleteThere has been, all along, an odd to and fro between regarding this mess as the result of stupidity or unintended consequence (or both) or on the other hand "planned" or "pure unalloyed evil" or both.
This goes along with listening to politicians who are not scientists bungling in their understanding of events, relying on people they regard as "experts" who are not (and can be seen as inexpert by scientists who are competent to evaluate) and politicians running roughshod over the rights and protective laws governing their societies and supposedly their actions. Thus, the politicians really can be simultaneously bunglingly stupid and hideously evil, all at once.
They can also be a dizzying variety of combinations and degrees of both. I've been thinking of that Paul Craig Roberts article which early on outlined some of the most egregiously incorrect scientific information, based on some fruitcake PhD virologist who happened to be a friend of PCR.
PCR is no doubt well intended, as likely his fruitcake buddy is, too. PCR seems to have relied on his good intentions rather than critical thinking and further enriching his understanding by studying the science for himself, directly. The virologist, sadly, may have been guilty of the same. Somebody somewhere probably fed the fruitcake those lines and he swallowed them hook, line, and sinker.
The whole thing, in my opinion, has been beautifully and brilliantly coordinated from the start. Planned. And it has been able to assume there are plenty of smart, decent people who have been rewarded throughout their careers to not put their thinking caps on, under certain circumstances.
Thus, though there has been plenty of stupidity to blame, it can be said to be entirely "pure, unalloyed evil" with only evil to blame, in the final analysis, because whoever or whatever was underneath this "planning" didn't mean humanity any good AT ALL, ANY HOW.
(Of course I have been driven insane by this stuff...If I need to clarify anything here, please don't hesitate to point that out.)
"Of course I have been driven insane by this stuff..."
DeleteMy condition too. Which is the reason I had hoped to induce Mike Yeadon to evaluate the remarkable article, 18 Reasons I Won't Be Getting a Covid Vaccine to which Franz drew attention. Apparently, Yeadon has no comment, so it seems I will have to make my own assessment.
Of particular interest, the article draws attention to British Med. Journal Associate Editor Peter Doshi's article on the vaccine trials which provide the basis for the emergency use approvals. I have to re-read that article, but at first sight it seems that the trials suggest that the vaccines provide little if any protection: a conclusion consistent with the insistence of the authorities that even if vaccinated one must remain in masked and distanced limbo indefinitely.
There are other points that are equally astonishing, if correct. For example the remarkable large number of adverse vaccine reactions, and the vastly greater number of what are estimated to be unreported adverse vaccine reactions.
There is also a discussion about death numbers and their exaggeration, which is difficult to assess. If covid hasn't killed hundreds of thousands of Americans, the excess deaths statistics suggest that something else out of the ordinary has. The latter alternative could, I suppose be true, but how one could easily get a handle on that I don't see.
As for PCR, like you, I have found his judgement on occasion to be dubious to say the least. Perhaps he's going senile -- he's even older than me! Or perhaps he's an agent of disinformation, which might explain at least one substantial payment received from the Unz Foundation.
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