Showing posts with label endemic equilibrium. Show all posts
Showing posts with label endemic equilibrium. Show all posts

Sunday, October 4, 2020

Is Britain's Second Wave Covid Lock-down Designed to Conceal the Absence of a Second Wave?

Earlier this year, a group of Oxford University scientists published a non peer-reviewed article on the MedArchive web site stating that:
 
Our simulations are in agreement with other studies that the current [Covid19] epidemic wave in the UK and Italy in the absence of interventions should have an approximate duration of 2-3 months, with numbers of deaths lagging behind in time relative to overall infections. 
Lorenco, J. et al. March 26, 2020. 

The paper was posted at MedArchive on March 26, 2020. Therefore, the prediction that the disease in the UK would transition from epidemic to endemic within 2-3 months can be evaluated by the published data.

What the data show is that Covid deaths in the UK peaked on April 20 at 1,172 and fell by 96% to 43 by June 20, i.e., three months later. Thereafter, the rate of Covid deaths in the UK has remained low and stable with a count of 24 recorded on September 24.

So, in its most important assertion, the paper was exactly correct: the epidemic wave of Covid19 that killed thousands in Britain earlier in the year is now over. Covid19 cases are still occurring in Britain, although with what frequency is unclear, but Covid-related deaths are now substantially fewer than those caused by the seasonal flu

Why then would the British Government introduce new lock-down measures that interrupt the education of both school children and university students, while causing massive economic costs? 

Is the answer precisely to conceal the fact that the widely touted second wave is an illusion based on dodgy or totally useless methods of assessing new infections

With a new lock-down even more severe than the last, the ending of the Covid epidemic, which has yet to register in the minds of most citizens, overwhelmed as they are by the mass media Covid terror campaign, will be attributed to an all-wise government, rather than to the natural progression of the disease. 

That naturally raises the question, why?

Why would the government of the UK along with governments in many other Western countries deliberately trash their own economies on the basis of a false alarm?

Suggestions invited.

Related:
Michael Hudson:

How an “Act of God” Pandemic is Destroying the West
Daily Mail:
Dentists see an explosion in patients suffering from tooth decay and gum disease after wearing face coverings

Thursday, October 1, 2020

Oxford Professor Trashes UK Government's New Lockdown Policy

You will see in the chart (after 7 min 36 seconds) in the Spectator video below that UK Covid19 deaths are now running well below deaths due to either flu or pneumonia. This means that Britain's "second wave" is a hoax.

Following that chart, there is an interview with Dr. Sunetra Gupta, Oxford University epidemiologist who argues that lockdown does not resolve the problem that Covid presents, which must eventually be faced, and means accepting an “endemic equilibrium such as we enjoy with influenza …”, which she says, should be achieved by allowing the virus to circulate while protecting the vulnerable.

In effect, Professor Gupta is saying that herd immunity is the end game, and as she has argued in various publications, herd immunity may already have been reached in parts of Britain where serological surveys indicate up to 20% of the population have Covid antibodies, while up to 60% may have T-Cell immunity from infection by virtue of exposure to other corona viruses.


Herd immunity may also have been achieved in the US. In late June CDC Director, Dr. Robert Redfield, stated that US Covid cases may be ten times the number reported. Currently, the number of reported cases is 7.3 million. If that is a 90% under-report, then the actual number of cases is equal to 21% of the US population. Add in the 60% of the population that may have T-cell immunity to Covid infection due to prior exposure to other corona viruses and you have the numbers for herd immunity. What that means is that the rate of infections in the future will stabilize around the present number, though with seasonal variation, as with other viruses.

Related:
The Absurdity Of COVID "Cases"
Thousands, Without Masks, Party At Wuhan Water Park In China