Our simulations are in agreement with other studies that the current [Covid19] epidemic wave in the UK and Italy in the absence of interventions should have an approximate duration of 2-3 months, with numbers of deaths lagging behind in time relative to overall infections. Lorenco, J. et al. March 26, 2020. |
The paper was posted at MedArchive on March 26, 2020. Therefore, the prediction that the disease in the UK would transition from epidemic to endemic within 2-3 months can be evaluated by the published data.
What the data show is that Covid deaths in the UK peaked on April 20 at 1,172 and fell by 96% to 43 by June 20, i.e., three months later. Thereafter, the rate of Covid deaths in the UK has remained low and stable with a count of 24 recorded on September 24.
So, in its most important assertion, the paper was exactly correct: the epidemic wave of Covid19 that killed thousands in Britain earlier in the year is now over. Covid19 cases are still occurring in Britain, although with what frequency is unclear, but Covid-related deaths are now substantially fewer than those caused by the seasonal flu.
Why then would the British Government introduce new lock-down measures that interrupt the education of both school children and university students, while causing massive economic costs?
Is the answer precisely to conceal the fact that the widely touted second wave is an illusion based on dodgy or totally useless methods of assessing new infections?
With a new lock-down even more severe than the last, the ending of the Covid epidemic, which has yet to register in the minds of most citizens, overwhelmed as they are by the mass media Covid terror campaign, will be attributed to an all-wise government, rather than to the natural progression of the disease.
That naturally raises the question, why?
Why would the government of the UK along with governments in many other Western countries deliberately trash their own economies on the basis of a false alarm?
Suggestions invited.
Related:
Michael Hudson:
How an “Act of God” Pandemic is Destroying the West
Daily Mail:
Dentists see an explosion in patients suffering from tooth decay and gum disease after wearing face coverings