Showing posts with label eldercare. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eldercare. Show all posts

Thursday, February 27, 2020

COVID-19, an Agent of Demographic Change: How the New Corona Virus Will Change the World

 The novel corona virus COVID-19 has three interesting properties:
(1) It is highly infectious;
(2) It has a high lethality, killing something like 3% of those infected;
(3) Risk of mortality increases with age.
What that means is that:
(a) Most people throughout the world will likely contract the disease within the next couple of years;
(b) Several hundred million people worldwide will die from the disease;
(c) Most deaths will be of pensioners in the most developed nations.
What that all means is that:
(i)  The burden of social security in the most developed nations will be radically lifted as the number of pensioners is cut by 10 to 30%, and perhaps by well over half if the virus returns over a number of years;
(ii) The number of young people engaged in the "eldercare" business will be radically reduced;
(iii) The cost of housing will fall and fertility rates will rise as the transfer of assets from the old to the young accelerates.
The most important net effect will be to save the Western nations from self genocide by suppression of native fertility (due to the burden of high housing and social services costs) and an end to mass population replacement immigration as native workers are released from service to the older generation, and thus freed to take the jobs that "natives won't do."

Whether as the result of a lucky accident or the planned release of an engineered virus, the overall effects will likely be judged by historians to have been beneficial.

Related: 
CanSpeccy: The novel Corona Virus Is Going Global and If You're Old, It May Just Have Been Targeted On You
Real Clear Science: Five Reasons not to Panic About the COVID-19 Coronavirus
Emerg. Micr. & Infections: Discovery of a subgenotype of human coronavirus NL63 associated with severe lower respiratory tract infection in China, 2018
ZH: Did China Close First Lab To Sequence Covid-19 Out Of Fear It Would Lose Bat Soup Narrative?
NY Post: Don’t buy China’s story: The coronavirus may have leaked from a lab
ZH: UK Prepares Giant Morgue in London's Hyde Park
The Economist: A broadguess is that 25-70% of the population of any infected country may catch the disease
The Lancet: RETRACTED: Chinese medical staff request international medical assistance in fighting against COVID-19
James Howard Kunstler: Hey, It’s Not Just Corona Virus
DM: Now a DOG tests positive for coronavirus
ZH: Japan, China Close Schools Nationwide\
South China Morning Post: Coronavirus far more likely than Sars to bond to human cells due to HIV-like mutation, scientists say
ZH: Covid-19 Infects Iranian Vice President, Kills Iran Ambassador To Vatican
ZH: Pope Cancels Event Over "Slight Illness" After Shaking Hands With 'Mask-Wearing' Public In St. Peter's Square