India Achieves Covid Herd Immunity With Mortality of One in Five Thousand

 India, is reported to have achieved Covid herd immunity, with about half the population, or just under seven hundred million people, having Covid19-specific antibodies. That means India is essentially finished with Covid as a national disaster. 

Covid deaths recorded in India total 155,000, indicating a Covid19 infection fatality rate of around one in 5000.  That is around one tenth of the rates reported in Europe and North America. That difference reflects, at least in part, the steep age-dependence of Covid mortality and a difference in population age profile. India has fewer than 6% of its population aged over 60 versus around 26% in Europe and North America. 

In addition, the European and North American infection fatality rates are undoubtedly greatly exaggerated due to underestimation of the infection rate, which is based on reported cases, not population-wide antibody surveys.  

The inference is clear: The Western states have totally mishandled the epidemic. The virus should have been allowed to spread among the young and resilient, while the elderly should have been given every means to isolate themselves — if they so chose. And it should be emphasized that isolation of the elderly should have been entirely voluntary. At the age of 75 plus, why should one not take a 10% risk of dying a year or two prematurely due to Covid, rather than being locked up for much, or perhaps all, of the rest of one's life?

What the response of the Western nations to Covid19 demonstrates is either remarkably poor judgement in government, or a conspiracy to undermine Western economies and crush the spirit of the people. 

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Lockdowns Will Likely Worsen Corona Virus Mortality

Here's a clear explanation as to why: 

 (1) Herd immunity either through vaccination or the natural spread of the virus is the only way that the Covid19 epidemics will be ended,

(2) The extreme age-dependence of Covid19 mortality, makes herd immunity attainable with minimal mortality by allowing full mobility to young people among whom the virus will spread without serious ill effects, while reducing mobility and hence the infection rate among the old and other vulnerable individuals, and,

(3) Lockdowns, by restricting the mobility of the young while forcing young and old to cohabit in close proximity at home, may actually increase the ultimate Covid19 death toll.

Sadly, these rather obvious inferences seem beyond the grasp of political geniuses such as Joe Biden, Boris Johnson and Justin Trudeau who get to destroy large parts of the economy of the country over which they preside by making their own dim view of reality the basis of public policy.

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COVID-19, an Agent of Demographic Change: How the New Corona Virus Will Change the World

 The novel corona virus COVID-19 has three interesting properties:

(1) It is highly infectious;
(2) It has a high lethality, killing something like 3% of those infected;
(3) Risk of mortality increases with age.

What that means is that:

(a) Most people throughout the world will likely contract the disease within the next couple of years;
(b) Several hundred million people worldwide will die from the disease;
(c) Most deaths will be of pensioners in the most developed nations.

What that all means is that:

(i)  The burden of social security in the most developed nations will be radically lifted as the number of pensioners is cut by 10 to 30%, and perhaps by well over half if the virus returns over a number of years;
(ii) The number of young people engaged in the "eldercare" business will be radically reduced;
(iii) The cost of housing will fall and fertility rates will rise as the transfer of assets from the old to the young accelerates.

The most important net effect will be to save the Western nations from self genocide by suppression of native fertility (due to the burden of high housing and social services costs) and an end to mass population replacement immigration as native workers are released from service to the older generation, and thus freed to take the jobs that "natives won't do."

Whether as the result of a lucky accident or the planned release of an engineered virus, the overall effects will likely be judged by historians to have been beneficial.

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