Is China Lying About the Numbers Infected with the Wuhan Coronavirus?

A message written in the snow alongside the Tonghui river reads "Goodbye Li Wenliang!"

On February 1, China's social medium Tencent momentarily reported that there were 154 thousand Novel Corona Virus infections in China and 25 thousand related deaths, or about ten times the official Chinese Government numbers.

Vox Popoli questioned the high mortality on the ground that if the Chinese mortality rate were 16% one would have expected a comparable rate outside of China, which is not the case. This evoked some illuminating reader comments, including the following:

10. The real Chinese death rate is the death rate with no medical care, in unheated buildings, in winter. The Western death rate is what you get with basic life support and central heating. 16% versus 2% might be plausible. 24. The high death toll might be accounted for because it's been designed (nature or otherwise) to kill Asian men. 25. You can see the real infection rate more accurately reflected in the number of infected among evacuees: Belgium, 1/9; Japan, 3/200; South Korea, 11/368. These numbers are statistically impossible with the reported infection rates. 58. They wouldn’t have quarantined 50 million plus people, have crematoriums working 24/7, be spraying the streets, be frantically building “hospitals”, limiting testing kits, etc., if the real numbers of infected and dead were the official figures.

But apparently you would be at less risk of contracting the novel Corona virus in Wuhan, China than on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Thus far, 61 of the 3700 people on board the Diamond Princess have been diagnosed with the virus for an infection rate of 2%* versus a reported rate of only 0.008% in the Wuhan quarantine zone.

Another anomaly in the reported infection rates is the difference between the rate for foreign nationals in China and Chinese nationals. China has reported 19 infections among foreign nationals in China, which out of a population of 50,000 foreign nationals in China, means an infection rate of 0.00038%. Applied to the population of Chinese nationals, that rate of infection would equate to a total of 530,000 infections.

Even if the population of foreign nationals in China is ten times that reported, an equivalent infection rate among Chinese nationals would be over fifty thousand, which is almost twice the rate China is currently reporting.

However, if the number of foreign nationals in China totals a million or so, then the infection rate among foreign nationals would confirm the validity of the numbers reported by the Chinese Government.

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* The number infected with the Wuhan bat flu on the Diamond Princess has now doubled to 136, for an infectrion rate of 4%.

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