| A team of researchers from The University of Manchester, Salford Royal and Res Consortium, have shown that a significant proportion of people in the UK—over 25%—is likely to have been infected already by the COVID-19 virus. The study—published this week in the International Journal of Clinical Practice—is the first to use the published local authority data to assess the cumulative impact of infection since the COVID-19 outbreak began. This has enabled them to calculate the R-value—the number of people infected by one person with COVID-19—within each local authority area. The published case data from the 144 Local Authorities analyzed by the team now gives an R value of well below 1. Source |
If, as in Canada, Italy, the US, and many other countries, most Covid 19 deaths in the UK are among elderly residents of care-homes, those numbers imply a Covid19 death toll among the non-care-home-residents of between 0.01 and 0.25%, or one per 40,000.
Ample justification for wrecking the economy, and driving people nuts due to weeks of pointless incarceration, no doubt, but time now to end the insanely obsessive caution and allow people to get on with their lives.
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I went to your link on the dodgy death count numbers coming from the CDC. It is profoundly depressing.
ReplyDeleteI noticed the article referenced this Scott Jensen fellow from Minnesota, the guy who is both a physician and a state senator. I have a good feeling about the guy but I wish he wasn't the only one out there sounding the alarm about the odd incentives the gov't offers to hospitals reporting deaths as due to Covid19, whether there is any confirmation or not. A test result is no longer required. This has to be intentional.
I spent the week in Denali Park. It did help to clear and refocus my mind. I thought you might be interested to know the NPS has closed Denali and Foraker for the entire 2020 climbing season. They've also closed the campgrounds in the park. Parking lots still open have only every other parking space open--social distancing. (It is okay to have people parking next to each other at the grocery store parking lots in town, which are usually crowded to capacity. Out there, though, where there were basically no people, but the NPS has complete control, tight spacing is prohibited.) There's a big sign at the park entrance: HELP US CONTROL THE SPREAD. I had a back country permit but decided not to use it because it contained wording to the effect if I made a mistake I might face legal actions. I thought I might. The rangers carry guns and act intimidating. I've become more wary of them as they probably do have the Federal Courts behind them now, whereas in the past the judges laughed when they hauled someone in (for no crime.)
At least as of 5/15/2020 the CDC still reports zero Covid-19 deaths for Alaska. We're still locked down, though.
"as of 5/15/2020 the CDC still reports zero Covid-19 deaths for Alaska. We're still locked down, though."
DeleteThe CDC are behind the times, apparently. According to KTUU, you now have over 300 cases:
https://www.ktuu.com/content/news/One-new-COVID-19-case-reported-in-Anchorage-Municipality--570520791.html
But supposing all that social distancing, even in the remotest wilderness parking lot, kept Alaska virus-free, you'd have to remain locked down until the virus had been entirely eliminated from the world, or you'd be infected as soon as you let down your guard.
Therefore, as far as I can see, there is no purpose in a lockdown other than to (a) slow the spread to avoid hospital overload, or (b) await a vaccine, which might take a while in this case as, so far as I am aware, no useful vaccine for a corona virus has ever been developed.
Yeah, it is wild how the Alaskan press went whole hog on hyping this thing. They probably pulled that number out of thin air. From nearly the beginning they seized on anything at all to work people up. They really are the very worst. I've noticed their steady decline over the decades. I don't believe the crappy daily we have in Fairbanks will be in existence five years from now. (I used to be proud of this small local paper, which has been around for 117 years.) I wouldn't doubt it for a moment if from their point of view this was just an opportunity to sell copies.
ReplyDeleteYou're right of course about the purpose (or lack of purpose) of the lock down.
The way Bill Gates has moved to center stage and appears to be leading the U.S. more effectively than any public official is really most peculiar and dramatic.
ReplyDeleteIt is impossible to not notice this, and I would think it would also be impossible to not ask oneself WHAT THE HELL is this. Creepy little guy who always reminded me of Kermit the Frog now looks more and more like the Toad from Hell.
I've already decided I won't be vaccinated no matter what. If this means I won't be able to travel, that won't hurt much. If it means I won't be able to enter stores to buy food, that'll be worse. It is obvious there will be some form of coercion to back it up.
Opposed to vaccination? Bill Gates has a message for you. See video I just posted above.
DeleteIs there no relief?
ReplyDeleteCheck this out:
https://www.goodreads.com/blog/show/1871-bill-gates-shares-his-summer-reading-picks?int=Soapbox_2020_May&int_sub=Blog_1871
I go to Goodreads to get away from the mania and who do I see on the Home Page? Mr. Bill Gates. He's wearing his pink sweater, too.
"He's wearing his pink sweater, too."
DeleteLOL.