Covid-19 in Britain: Herd Immunity Achieved

A team of researchers from The University of Manchester, Salford Royal and Res Consortium, have shown that a significant proportion of people in the UK—over 25%—is likely to have been infected already by the COVID-19 virus. The study—published this week in the International Journal of Clinical Practice—is the first to use the published local authority data to assess the cumulative impact of infection since the COVID-19 outbreak began. This has enabled them to calculate the R-value—the number of people infected by one person with COVID-19—within each local authority area. The published case data from the 144 Local Authorities analyzed by the team now gives an R value of well below 1. Source

So,  with a reported UK Covid19 death toll, so far, of 33,614, a 25% infection rate, and a population of 67 million, the infection-specific Covid19 mortality rate is just under one in 2000, or 0.05%, about the same as the seasonal flu.

If, as in Canada, Italy, the US, and many other countries, most Covid 19 deaths in the UK are among elderly residents of care-homes, those numbers imply a Covid19 death toll among the non-care-home-residents of between 0.01 and 0.25%, or one per 40,000.

Ample justification for wrecking the economy, and driving people nuts due to weeks of pointless incarceration, no doubt, but time now to end the insanely obsessive caution and allow people to get on with their lives.

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