Which raises the question: was the murder of Darya Dugina a provocation to induce Russian escalation that would justify NATO intervention and the onset of World War III?
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The murder of Daria Dugina is a wild card in a non-zero-sum conflict
Friday, August 26, 2022
Scott Ritter: "The Hammer is About to Come Down" In Ukraine
The murder of Daria Dugina is a wild card in a non-zero-sum conflict
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I kinda thought the hammer had already come down, more or less, based on what I'd been reading at Moon Over Alabama. Months ago, they were saying (and that one guy whose name I've forgotten) the war had already been won by Russia.
ReplyDeleteIs there a discrepancy? Were they overestimating Russia's victories and success?
Moon of Alabama doesn't hold Scott Ritter in high esteem.
ReplyDeleteWell Ritter got one thing right: Saddam had no WMDs. As for predictions, they are difficult, especially about the future.
DeleteIn predicting that the hammer is about to come down, I take it he means there will be escalation with more Russian troops on the ground, more warplanes in the air, more missiles flying. Douglas MacGregor seems to be of the same opinion.
Why escalate now? Perhaps in part due to provocation, i.e., the murder of Darya Dugina. More likely, because Ukraine's fortified defensive positions in Novorossiya have been heavily damaged or destroyed, and Ukraine's experienced miiltary manpower has been depleted.
M of A seems to take a logical view of the world, although in some matters I'd certainly question their judgement.
"In predicting that the hammer is about to come down, I take it he means there will be escalation with more Russian troops on the ground, more warplanes in the air, more missiles flying. Douglas MacGregor seems to be of the same opinion."
DeleteThat's because that's what escalation means. Escalation means more troops on the ground, more warplanes in the air, and more missiles flying.
The problem I have is why Russia would escalate now if it was true Russia pretty much won the war months ago. If Russia won the war months ago, Russia would be de-escalating, not escalating.
Assuming it is true:
(1) Russia accomplished its objectives earlier this summer;
(2)Russia isn't attempting to expand its "empire";
(3) Russia was defensively protecting the "Russians" in "Ukraine" from Nazis intent on genocide.
If so, Russia wouldn't need to do much more than sit back and let the USA bleed itself, and its allies, to death.
It wouldn't escalate now. It would hold the fort. It would stay in a holding position and watch the quixotic and misguided efforts of the USA and its puppets come to naught. (Painfully, through destroyed economies and drastically reduced standards of living, including shivering in the dark during winter.)
I think Ritter is wrong. Russia isn't going to escalate. If my prediction is wrong I'll at least be able to sort through my assumptions and learn something.
"The problem I have is why Russia would escalate now if it was true Russia pretty much won the war months ago."
DeleteWhatever anyone may have said, Russia did not win the war earlier. The Ukrainians have consistently refused to discuss terms for ending the war, and wars don't end without a peace agreement.
Russia obviously is expanding its empire. It has taken a land corridor to Crimea and will surely not give it up unless compelled to. Beyond that, I would expect Russia to take Odessa if it can, an expansion of the empire justified by the need to protect ethnic Russians from Ukraine's Nazis. Remember Julia Tymoshenko, former Ukrainian Prime Minister, calling for someone to nuke the Russians of Eastern Ukraine? I don't think any Russian leader could have survived without responding to the current Ukrainian nationalist provocation against ethnic Russians in what was, from 1776 until the Communist Revolution, Russian territory, and which was effectively ruled by Russia until the fall of the Soviet Union.
My bet is that if not driven back by NATO, Russia will take Odessa and we will see the collapse of the Kyiv regime. In fact, rump Ukraine could well be incorporated into Poland, since much of it was originally Polish anyway.
That Russian progress has been so slow, reflects the brutal reality that Ukraine can be deNazified only by killing Nazis or troops directed by Nazis, which the Russians have been doing every day since the war began. And for that, the Russians have largely relied on the forces of the Donbas Republics, which are made up mainly of former AFU units that defected to the Donbas republics in 2014.
"Time for diplomacy
ReplyDeleteThis war will have no military victors. A continuation of the war will only be result in more deaths and destruction. We need a ceasefire as soon as possible as a starting point for comprehensive peace negotiations. Therefore, It is the time of diplomacy. The EU and its member states must step up their diplomatic efforts to promote a ceasefire. To do this, the exchange with previously neutral countries such as Indonesia, India or South Africa, but also intensified with China in order to persuade them to act as mediators between the warring parties. The United Nations must also launch new initiatives." - from dissidents in "Scholz's own party".
"German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised in February to overhaul his country in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Six months after this Zeitenwende—turning point—it’s going better than many expected even if worse than some hoped.
Mr. Scholz announced three transformations in his startling speech to lawmakers on Feb. 27, three days after Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine invasion started. First, Berlin would reinvest in its military to meet the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s goal of spending 2% of gross domestic product on defense, and specifically would use it to upgrade equipment such as fighter jets. Second, Germany would treat energy policy as a national-security matter and wean itself off Russian natural gas. Third, Berlin no longer would pursue mindless diplomacy for diplomacy’s sake, especially with the world’s autocrats." --Wall Street Journal, August 26th, 2022
"We need a ceasefire as soon as possible as a starting point for comprehensive peace negotiations."
DeleteThat is certainly what Ukraine needs. Or it may well cease to exist in anything like its present form.
What is happening in Ukraine now is a continuation of what has been happening in central Europe for literally thousands of years. People migrating and occupying one another's territory at the expense of much blood.
ReplyDeleteRussia is the greatest power on the European plain. It expanded greatly as a result of WW2, then shrank with the collapse of the Soviet Empire. Now Russia is seeking to expand again, reoccupying territory it has occupied intermittently for centuries.
Remember, in the Ninth century the Russian state was based in Kyiv, where, in the Tenth century, Prince Vladimir of Kyiv founded the Russian Orthodox Church. That particular Vlad was baptized in Crimea.