Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Brilliant Billionaires, No. 79: The Incredibly Dumb Things Very Rich People Can Say

            "At risk of stating the obvious," 

Warns Elon Musk on Twitter:
"unless something changes to cause the birth rate to exceed the death rate, Japan will eventually cease to exist. This would be a great loss for the world." 

Yeah, welcome to the Theory of Evolution Elon. 

With a fertility rate of 1.36, versus the replacement rate of 2.1, the Japs certainly appear headed for the dustbin of evolutionary history. 

But why the particular concern for the Japanese, the World leaders in the business of replacing people with robots?

What about the Italians with at fertility rate of 1.27, which is lower even than that of the Japanese, and not much more than half the replacement rate. 

Or those poor Nazified Ukrainians at 1.23. And let's not forget the South Koreans at 1.05, which is exactly half the replacement rate. 

And think about North America where the historic Canadian and American populations also face the prospect of extinction, with Canada's flaccid fertility rate at 1.47 and falling, while the US rate, at 1.7, is far short of true virility, --little better, in fact, than Britain's extinction threatening 1.65.

And the Japanese have one important thing going for them. They resist mass immigration to make up for a shortfall in births. 

That's a plus because, as the population shrinks, the quality of life will tend to improve: labour shortages will result in higher wages, fewer people will mean lower Tokyo apartment rents, more green space, and greater agricultural self-sufficiency. Thus, at some point in the future, the Japanese are likely to find themselves, like Elon Musk, prosperous enough to afford more than one or two children. 

But not so in North America or Europe. The Brits, the Americans and the Canadians are all packing in the migrants from far and wide, Nazis from Ukraine now arriving in Canada, as must please our Fuhrer Justin; drug dealers and rapists from Central America to the US, which is evidently fine with the Bidens; and to Britain waves out of Asia, Africa and the Middle-East. Likewise in the EU, the replacement population is coming largely from Asia, Africa and the Middle-East -- mostly good people, I'm sure. But they are not Europeans.

So which nation is it that is truly under threat of extinction? 

Not the Japanese, whose population will surely stabilize at a level considerably below the present incredibly crowded nationwide density of 3.5 per hectare. 

But the outlook for North Americans and Europeans is less promising. They are currently  undergoing rapid replacement by people from elsewhere while overall population densities and hence  economic competition rises. The  increasing competition for work and housing will surely drive down the already deficient fertility of the native-born populations, leading to ever more rapid replacement by the migrant tide. 


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