Showing posts with label US Federal Reserve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Federal Reserve. Show all posts

Thursday, March 14, 2019

The US Economy Is In a Good Place

Speaking of the appearance of US Federal Reserve Board Chairman, Jerome Powell, on CBS's 60 Minutes, James Howard Kunstler writes:

... Maybe it was an hallucination, but I heard him say that “the economy is in a good place,” and that “the outlook is a favorable one.” Point taken. Pull the truck up to the loading dock and fill it with Tesla shares! I also thought I heard “Inflation is muted.” That must have been the laugh line, since there is almost no single item in the supermarket that goes for under five bucks these days. ...

What you really had to love was Mr. Powell’s explanation for the record number of car owners in default on their monthly payments: “…not everybody is sharing in this widespread prosperity we have.” Errrgghh Errrgghh Errrgghh. Sound of klaxon wailing. What he meant to say was, hedge-funders, private equity hustlers, and C-suite personnel are making out just fine as the asset-stripping of flyover America proceeds, and you miserable, morbidly obese, tattooed gorks watching this out on the Midwestern buzzard flats should have thought twice before dropping out of community college to drive a forklift in the Sysco frozen food warehouse ...
Source: James Howard Kunstler. Clusterfuck Nation Blog

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Forget the Dollar, Say Good-Bye to Gold: Now Is the Time For the Numero

In response to my post: Is the US Fed Truly Evil? A Dialog Between a Goldbug and a Bank Apologist, a reader remarked that what is needed is form of money less easily manipulated than either gold or fiat currency.

In response, I described the perfect — and perfectly practicable — monetary unit, the Numero (pronounced with a long "e"), in a post entitled The Numero: Beyond Gold and Fractional Reserve Banking.

Now, as the World again teeters on the brink of a financial disruption that will enrich a handful of billionaire speculators, disrupt economies and hurt ordinary folk throughout the world, it is time to return to the need for an impartial, self-regulating monetary system such as existed when gold and silver were everywhere the monetary standard, and all paper instruments were convertible to precious metal. The Numero provides the perfect basis for such a system, but with many advantages over gold: it can neither be stolen nor can it be used for corrupt purposes, and it costs essentially nothing to create.

Instead, today, we have a infinitely manipulable monetary system under which countries strive to take advantage of trade partners by stealing their jobs with undervalued currencies or by getting stuff free by printing wads of worthless paper, while stealing from their own citizens by currency debasement.

China and other Asian nations have long been in the job-stealing business with undervalued currencies, the US and other Western nations have long been in the business of printing worthless paper to cover their expenses.

As a result, resentments build up. China is a currency manipulator. The US rips off the world for $trillions-worth of oil and manufactured goods by virtue of its exclusive right to print the world’s reserve currency. Smaller countries, do what they may, are constantly in danger of economic disruption due to the tidal forces created by currency market manipulation and intervention.

But there is a simple solution, a return to a gold-exchange-standard-type system established under the Bretton-Woods Agreement, but without the absurd waste of energy and resources that a gold-based system entails as it drives the mining of a metal destined for permanent storage in a steel-and-concrete-lined vault.

As I have already explained, such a system can be based on an entirely cost-free resource: namely, the set of cardinal numbers. Named the Numero, each unit of currency would have a unique whole number. Existing currencies would be converted to the Numero at the current exchange rate with either gold, or the US dollar or, the price of a Big Mac, or a basket of commodities, manufactured goods and services.

If the US dollar is taken as the initial standard, then every US-dollar-account balance will be unchanged except in the designation of the currency, which will now be the Numero not the US dollar. Balances in other currencies would be exchanged at their rate of exchange with the US$ on the designated date of conversion.

Now we would have an electronic currency that cannot be counterfeited, costs nothing to create, and can be traced every moment through a global network of computers that record the ownership of every single uniquely numbered currency unit.

As with a gold-backed currency, the Numero cannot be printed unilaterally by the government of any country, since not only would that amount to fraud upon the trading partners of that country, but because such fraud would be immediately identified, since each new currency unit would have a unique unauthorized number.

The Numero, like gold, would automatically adjust international trade balances toward zero, since countries with an international trade deficit would run short of currency, which is to say, would experience a contraction in money supply that would depress prices and increase international competitiveness. Conversely countries with a trade surplus would experience an expansion in money supply that would increase prices and decrease international competitiveness.

Other benefits of the Numero include the prevention of financial theft, money laundering, bribery and corruption, since stolen, laundered, or illicitly gained funds would appear with their identifying numbers and their source, in the account of the receiving party where they could be immediately identified.

As the global economy expands, or contracts, the supply of Numeros could be modified automatically by adjusting every Numero bank balance by an appropriate factor. Thus if the world economy grows by 0.25% per month, every Numero bank balance would be credited each month with an addition of newly minted (i.e., authorized and uniquely numbered) Numeros equal to 0.25% of that account's balance, in accordance with the Biblical principle that "to those that have, more shall be given." Conversely, "from whom more shall be taken away" in the event of a global contraction.

As for lending, banks would have to make do with funds deposited with them, instead of creating booms and busts by printing money, as they are free to do now, without regard to prevailing economic conditions or the fundamental needs of the economy.

The above is based on a post of September 24, 2012.

Friday, March 23, 2012

Is the US Fed Truly Evil? A Dialog Between a Goldbug and a Bank Apologist

In response to an earlier post about the operations of the US Federal Reserve, Harry raised the following question, which I paraphrase: Is not the Federal Reserve the creature of the monied interest, and if so, how does it serve that interest?

In answer, I have to admit that I don't know. However, I gained some insight into the question from the following dialogue between an advocate of gold as money (Goldbug), and a defender of the Fed (Fed Apologist).

Goldbug: Gold has been money for thousands of years and it has always held its value.

The price of an ounce of gold today will buy a suit fit for a United States senator, two thousand years ago, an ounce of gold would have bought a toga fit for a Roman senator. But in the span of the mere 99 years since the passing of the Federal Reserve Act, the United States dollar has lost 96% of its value.

It's time to return to gold, and time to abolish both the Fed with its freedom to print limitless quantities of fiat currency and the fractional reserve banking system that allows sociopathic banksters to print their own money. We will then once again have sound money that does not rob widows and orphans of their means of existence or deny savers the rewards of thrift.

Apologist: It is true that the dollar has lost much of its value since 1913, but to put that in perspective, 99 years exceeds the normal span of a man's life, and a devaluation of 96% in almost 100 years amounts to an inflation rate of only 3.1% per year, which, according to the economists, is almost ideal.

Moderate inflation is necessary as a stimulus to economic expansion. Without it, people will be inclined to hoard money, so driving the economy into a recession or depression for want of demand.

But, under the wise monetary policy set by the Federal Reserve to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates, US GDP per capita has increased in constant dollars from around $10,000 per person in 1913 to more than $48 thousand today.

Goldbug: That's all twaddle and bunkum, the idea that ...

Apologist: Wait a minute. Let me finish. When you talk of abolishing fiat money and fractional reserve banking, you display your ignorance of the history of money. There never was, what shall we call it, a golden age, when gold was the only medium of exchange -- at least not in the last thousand years or more.

Chinese merchants during the 8th Century Tang Dynasty used bills of exchange, or promissory notes, to finance trade, as did the Arabs of the tenth century and, a little later, the merchants of Europe. Even though backed by gold, the quantity of such paper could, and was, expanded far beyond the gold monetary base. And governments issued coins, whether of gold or other metals, with a face or fiat value far in excess of the value of the metal of which the coins were minted. For example, in the early 16th Century, Henry VIII of England doubled the money supply over a period of around 20 years by debasing the coinage, thereby creating one of the greatest bouts of inflation in England's history.

Goldbug: Yes, yes, we know that where there's a will to rob the citizenry of the value of their labor, the government will find a way. But the use of gold as money should severely limit the ways of government and bankster theft. If a bank loses all its money in reckless speculation, there will be no bailouts with freshly printed cash from the Fed because any fresh money must have a base in real money, which is to say gold, which cannot be conjured out of thin air, but is essentially fixed in quantity.

Apologist: So now you acknowledge that fractional reserve banking is a necessity, but bankers should be held more closely accountable for their mistakes? If so, then we are in complete agreement. The financial meltdown of 2008 exposed weaknesses in the system of bank regulation and the need to impose stricter discipline on bankers who may be so highly motivated by the existing system of remuneration as to take undue risks with their shareholders' capital.

Goldbug: In no way are we in agreement. Far from it. I do not concede a necessity for fractional reserve banking. What we need is a system that combines the stability of gold with a cashless, digital currency one hundred percent backed by gold. Such systems already exist: Gold Money, for example. All that's needed is to establish such a system on a nation-wide and international basis with secure, distributed gold storage and an equally secure, distributed computerized administration.

Under such a system, physical cash would not exist. All payments would be by the use of a cash card employing highly secure bio-identification (e.g., a retinal scan). Payments would instantaneously transfer the registration of the specified quantity of gold from one account to another.

Apologist: So under that system, how could the US economy continue to function? At present, consumption accounts for 73% of the US economy, and most of that consumption is financed with credit.

With no bank credit creation, there'd be no economy!

Goldbug: What you mean is, there'd be no Fed- and bankster-induced booms and busts. There would still be credit. But it would be based on real money. Thus, if you had cash, which is to say gold, surplus to your immediate requirements, you could lend it to a bank at interest, thereby providing the bank with funds for car loans, mortgages, etc.

Apologist: But under the system you propose, the quantity of credit would be totally inadequate to the need. Moreover, the quantity of money would be fixed, not by the needs of the economy, but by the amount of gold, a purely accidental quantity. Under such an arrangement, there would be persistent deflation as the economy grew. That is to say there would be deflation if the economy grew.

But in fact, the economy would likely go into a never ending depression as people hoarded money as its value rose, the effect of which would be to make the value of money rise even further.

Goldbug: If Americans have such an insatiable appetite for consumption that under the Fed's "wise" monetary policy they borrowed their brains out during the housing boom, why are we to believe that in the absence of credit, they will refuse to spend even what little cash they actually have. In fact, one can assume just the reverse, that as debt is greatly reduced, so also will be the tendency to save.

Furthermore, we know that the Great Depression resulted from the failure of Fed monetary policy. The monetary expansion during the Twenties, which the Fed failed to check, resulted in the Great Crash, which caused a collapse in money supply, which the Fed also failed to check. Only a World war, it seems, and the near total destruction of the industrial base of all of America's competitors, was sufficient to restore American prosperity.

Apologist: It cannot be denied that the Fed made mistakes in the Twenties and Thirties, but that was due to inadequate information and the primitive state of economic models of the era. Today, the Fed is much better equipped to handle booms and busts as it has demonstrated since the credit crisis of 2008 by bailing out the World's banking system with an infusion of $16 trillion, all of which, incidentally, has been repaid.

Goldbug: Oh well done! The Fed saved the World from a disaster of its own making. It was the Fed that allowed credit to expand without limit, until a true Ponzi economy was achieved, when money was borrowed primarily not to finance consumption or investment but to invest in assets that were rising in price because people were borrowing money to invest in assets that were rising in price.

The Fed created this mother of all bubbles by driving the Fed Funds rate from 6.5% in 2000 to a low of 1% three years later, with Alan Greenspan claiming all the while that you can't recognize a bubble before it's burst. Well Ol' Al must have had his suspicions about a bubble since he set about deliberately sticking a pin in the economy with 17 consecutive Fed Funds rate hikes from 1% in 2003 to a high of 5.25% in June 2006, when the property crash and the consequent global financial meltdown, began.

During the early years of this century, bank deregulation, predatory lending, mortgage derivatives combined with Greenspan's injection of low interest stimulant, drove America's private indebtedness to an insane all-time high in excess of 300% of GDP.

And you congratulate the Fed for saving the World from the inevitable bust. LOL.

And we're nowhere near out of the woods yet. Unemployment according to the metrics of the 1930's is still as high as during the Great Depression. Black youth unemployment approaches 90% and folks think blacks are especially prone to crime: no, they're especially prone to unemployment in a system that educates black youth poorly and then denies them the right to work for less than the minimum wage.

Apologist: You're just ranting. The Fed has nothing to do with black education, which I agree is deplorable in its failure to prepare the average black youth for productive employment. And the Fed has nothing to do with minimum wage laws, which I agree are damaging in their impact on those at the margin of employability.

Goldbug: But as for the Fed's role in the creation of booms and busts, I note that you have nothing to say.

Apologist: Far from it. I was just pointing out ...

At which point, I fell asleep and can, therefore, report no more of the conversation. However, the comments of others would be appreciated.

Friday, February 24, 2012

Sixteen trillion here, fifteen trillion there, soon you're talking real money

Google for "sixteen trillion" and you come up with some scary stuff:

Bernanke Secretly Gives away Sixteen Trillion (Ahead of the Heard);
US$ 16000000000000.00 (sixteen trillion) bailout (Pravda Forum);
Bernanke Secretly Gives away Sixteen Trillion Dollars (News Goldseek.com);
FED doles out sixteen trillion in bailouts that banks don't have to repay (trulia.com);
The Sixteen-Trillion-Dollar Mistake (cup.columbia.edu);

and many, many similar stories, although none, it seems, from the mainstream media.

Then comes this speech in the British upper house by Lord James Blackheath, a man of supposedly wide experience of banking and finance, in which the speaker claims to possess documents indicating that the US Fed was a participant in a fraud involving the transfer of $15 trillion dollars from an Indonesian potentate to the Royal Bank of Scotland.



Wow. Beeeeezaaaaaaarrrrre.

However, on the Blackheath claim, at least, we can probably set our minds at rest, for according to Andy McSmith at the Independent the noble lord himself appears to have been taken in by a Nigerian-letter-type scam.
David James was a City businessman commissioned by the Tories, in opposition, to report on ways of eliminating government waste. Last week, the 74-year-old peer was exercised about a story he has picked up that $15trn – that is $15,000,000,000,000 – belonging to "the richest man in the world", Yohannes Riyadi, was deposited in 2009 in the Royal Bank of Scotland. Lord James said he remains baffled after a two-year pursuit of the story, but has all the information on a memory stick, which he is offering to hand over to the Government.

His documents include a letter from the Bank of Indonesia telling him the whole story is a "complete fabrication". He took his concerns to the Treasury minister, Lord Sassoon, who said: "This is rubbish. It is far too much money. It'd stick out like a sore thumb and you can't see it in the RBS accounts."

And an alert Financial Times blogger said that had Lord James googled "Yohannes Riyadi", the first item to come up would be a warning from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that the name is part of an internet scam designed to get money from the gullible. Two agents are trying to trace who is behind it. Perhaps Lord James should offer his memory stick.
But what of Bernanke's "secret," "not-to-be-repayed" "give away" to those undeserving banksters?

Thanks to an amendment by U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Wall Street reform law passed in July 2010 directed the Government Accountability Office to conduct "the first top-to-bottom audit of the Federal Reserve."

"As a result of this audit, we now know that the Federal Reserve provided more than $16 trillion in total financial assistance to some of the largest financial institutions and corporations in the United States and throughout the world," said Sanders. "This is a clear case of socialism for the rich and rugged, you're-on-your-own individualism for everyone else."

But what we also know from Page 137 of the Government Accountability Office report is that by last summer, every cent of the $16 trillion had been repaid. 

So perhaps what is most puzzling about the $sixteen trillion is that the US Fed does not do more to publicize the success of an operation that seems to have cost the US taxpayer nothing, while possibly saving the World from a total banking system collapse.