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The evidence is conclusive. Iran is a mono-ethnic nation state stubbornly intent on preserving its racial, cultural and religious heritage, something to which no nation but Israel is entitled to do.
Then there's the oil. One hundred and fifty billion barrels, or $15 trillion-worth at the wellhead. That's far too much cash for such a populous country in such a geostrategically important part of the world to invest in in its own development.
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What's more, they have to restore control of the oil fields to the Anglo-Iranian Oil Co. (aka BP) and Exxon.
Don't disagree with you overall but one point. Iran is not a nation state, usually defined as state where one ethnic group makes up more than 95% of the population. In fact only 65% are Persians - Aryans - the rest being mainly Turkish (Azeri), Kurds, Baluchis, etc.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, they are still going to be attacked. There is very little easily extracted, light sweet crude still left and it is badly needed by others if they are to avoid collapse and keep the global show on the road for a last few years.
Gavinthornbury
"In fact only 65% are Persians - Aryans - the rest being mainly Turkish (Azeri), Kurds, Baluchis"
DeleteThat's a good point. But it seems to me it's like saying Britain is not a nation state because the English make up only 65% of the population the rest being mainly Welsh, Scotch and Irish. But in fact, if you look at the genetics, the people of the British Isles are more closely related to one another than they are to any other major group, e.g., the Chinese, or the Bangladeshis or even the French. The same, may be more or less true of the Iranians.
In any case, they all look the same, just like an English football crowd before the post 1950 mass immigration.
"There is very little easily extracted, light sweet crude still left and it is badly needed ..."
DeleteThat may be so, but does it matter?
Oil from the oil sands in both Canada and Venezuela is coming on stream.
According to Bloomberg:
This year "Venezuela Passes Saudis to Hold World’s Biggest Oil Reserves. ... The South American country’s deposits were at 296.5 billion barrels at the end of last year, data from BP Plc show."
And according to the CIA, Canada is up there, just behind Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, with 175 billion barrels.
And as fracking drives the price of US and Canadian shale gas to the floor, who needs Iranian oil?
What the US has to be concerned with now is that increased
World supply drives down the price of energy and kills America's booming shale oil and gas industries.
Such a concern may underlie a basic shift in ME policy. The goal of which may be not to appropriate the resource, but to keep it locked in, or at least throttled back so as to support prices.
If oil prices remain high as America becomes energy self-sufficient, America's trade balance will greatly improve, while China, India and other Asian competitors are forced to spend heavily on expensive energy imports.
A preference for high oil prices is a shared interest of the US and Iran. This may underlie the Obama administration's seeming reluctance to wage war on Iran.