Zelinsky sent the Ukrainian Army, including the Nazi Azov battalion, to Eastern Ukraine to subjugate the rebel Donbas republics and to murder the Russian "cockroach" defenders. In response, Putin sent the Russian army to The Ukraine, not evidently, to pursue a lightning war of conquest, but to engage in a slow grinding down of the Ukrainian army, and the gradual occupation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizkia and Kherson. In the process, many of Ukraine's Nazi warriors must have died, while many more, more than 2500 according to this Russian source, have become prisoners of war following the surrender of the Nazis holed up in the Azovstal bastion.
How much further Russia will advance, and for how long Russia intends to hold the territory it has conquered, remains to be seen. It is likely, however, that Russia will hold indefinitely all occupied territory East of the Dneiper River, territory, that is, which Russia won, previously, in the Russo-Polish war that ended with the Treaty of Andrusovo in 1667. Under the terms of that treaty -- signed more than one hundred years before the founding of the United States of America -- Russia gained title to all of what is now the Ukraine on the right bank of the river.
In addition, however, Russia will likely cross the river and occupy the rest of Ukraine's Black Sea coast, including the city of Odessa, which was founded in 1794 as a Russian naval fortress on territory annexed from Turkey in 1792.
Meantime, Zelinsky has agreed to what is atantamount to a merger of Ukraine -- that part of it which the government in Kyiv still controls -- with Poland. Under the terms of this remarkable agreement, Polish citizens will be free both to stand for election to the Ukrainian Parliament, and to serve as judges in Ukrainian courts.
Thus, entirely through his own actions, Zelinksy has effectively abolished The Ukraine: the East and likely also the South going to Russia, the West going to Poland. In this way, Poland regains the lands, including the Polish City of Lvov, annexed to The Ukraine by Stalin following World War II. At the same time, Ukrainians will presumably be free to migrate into Poland. For Ukrainian Jews, this freedom is of immense significance, since it allows them to restore the a Jewish population to what, before the Nazi genocide, had long been the home of the majority of Europe's Jews.
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My prediction is the Biden Administration will ride this donkey down into the dust, mud, and ignominy. They'll double down and bet the farm.
ReplyDeleteIf I was Zelensky, I would merge with Poland as quickly as I could.
ReplyDeleteThis is how I see it going: Ukraine was not part of NATO; Poland has been a full member of NATO since 1999. If "Ukraine" merges with Poland, "Ukraine" in effect becomes a member of NATO. As a member of NATO, it will be directly defended by NATO. The character of the whole situation changes drastically.
Zelensky will be supported to whatever extent. I imagine he would see this support as protecting his interests, but if push comes to shove, his interests will be subject to annihilation.
At that point, all that is required for WWIII to become hot, will be provocation in either direction.
When you've got journalists at the Wall Street Journal writing "we need to teach Russia the USA can win a nuclear war," it is not terribly unlikely the USA will provide this provocation.
I think things will settle down. But some conflict is essential to eliminate the UkroNazis, as I have outlined in my later post. Apparently, the Russians have several thousand Nazis in custody and they have presumably killed many more.
DeleteGetting rid of the Nazis was essential if Ukraine, what's left of it after the Russian annexation of Eastern Ukraine, is to join the EU.
The Ukrainian Nazis, or Banderites, are, of course, virulently anti-Semitic, so their elimination was also a requirement of Jews in West Bank Ukraine.
Naturally, the Americans and their allies are taking the opportunity provided by the conflict in Eastern Ukraine to kill some Russians. But I don't believe they mean to be taken seriously enough to start WWIII -- by the Russians or anyone else.
And of course every war is seen as an opportunity to test out new gear, and stimulate the economy as Ukrainians use up obsolete stuff that will now have to be replaced at the US taxpayers expense.
The Nazis are in control in Ukraine, so the elimination of Nazis in Ukraine won't come from within Ukraine. Where would it come from outside the Ukraine? I don't see it coming from anywhere. It won't come from the USA, and that means it won't come from Poland, either. The Poles are under the USA's thumb, as was the Ukraine...It almost looks as if all of Europe is now under the USA's thumb...
ReplyDelete...The USA might as well annex Europe and instead of the euro, they can have US dollars.
I don't really believe things can settle down. The path to peace and prosperity has been intentionally broken by these actions. I am anxious to see how Europe will survive next winter. How will Europeans heat their homes? Are the Europeans going to mothball their homes and keep warm by huddling together in public buildings such as schools? This seems to me a very real question, and it is not being taken up-- as if a magic wand can be waved to make all okay and snug.
You well could be right, of course. It will amaze me if the Biden Administration can put out all that false information and propaganda, whip up all that anti-Russia, anti-Putin hatred, and then: poof! Ukraine doesn't matter, the defeat isn't a defeat, the lies weren't lies, Putin is acceptable, and so on. It will amaze me-- but I have been amazed so many times before it no longer amazes me.