The clip with Biden blaming everything on Putin...We know that's ridiculous, but with the level of hatred it has been possible to generate in the USA, I suspect it will work like a charm.
The uptick in inflation does not coincide with the war, but there's no doubt most people will assume it does. In January, the CPI rose 0.6%, placing annual inflation at 7.5%, the largest annual increase since 1982. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th. Runaway inflation was sufficiently covered by the financial press, but my impression is the mainstream media has ignored it until now, when it is so severe the average American notices every time they buy groceries.
I watched all of the Mearsheimer interview posted here. Earlier I had watched most of a posted Mearsheimer lecture given at the University of Chicago. There's a lot in these with which to agree and disagree. I'm relatively certain, though, Mearsheimer and Macgregor have different views. Do you agree they have different views? What do you think about this?
In Mearsheimer's lecture, I noted he attributed the US's motives in Ukraine to be based on a desire to expand NATO eastward. Between the time of that lecture and now, the US hasn't pressed very hard to include Ukraine in NATO. (It is amazing in these issues to remember 2016-2020 Trump was President, and not only was Trump not pushing for NATO expansion, he was pushing for an end to NATO.)
I was also frankly appalled when Mearsheimer suggested in supporting the Maidan revolution, the US was supporting an expansion of democratic rule. He really said that. His objection was the US failed to appreciate Russia's perspective of democracy in Ukraine as an encroachment.
To me, a Russian V-day by May 9th, doesn't seem unrealistic. I'm confused, though, what a Russian military victory by May 9th means if this is the opening salvo of WWIII. A pause in open military conflict?
Mearsheimer reviews the war in terms of the American interest and concludes that the US should be building an alliance with Russia against China.
That makes sense from an American political point of view, but I am more interested in the moral rights of the people of Ukraine. To that end, I would like to have seen a referendum on national allegiance undertaken oblast by oblast. Since no such resort to the will of the people has been made, one has only a vague idea of what the people of Eastern Ukraine want. Many of them are Russian speakers and some are Russian nationals. However, such opinion poll data as exist suggests that in most if not all of Eastern Ukraine the majority of the population has favored remaining within a Unite Ukraine.
In this respect, Crimea was different from the rest of Eastern Ukraine as there is no doubt that a large majority of Crimeans wanted union with Russia.
The present conflict between Russia and Ukraine thus seems different from the last and it seems necessary to conclude that Russia is engaged in a war of aggression.
It is an war, however, that Ukraine seems to have done everything in its power to initiate through brutal attacks on the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk and the vicious anti-Russian racism of many of Zelensky's backers. That Zelensky has done nothing to restrain this taunting of Russian "cockroaches" suggests that he is under US direction for the purpose of fomenting a war in the US interest.
If so, what is the US objective? Presumably to expand the war with the aim of smashing Russia and placing NATO on the borders of China, while US oligarchs and corporations loot Russia, which is to be broken into a collection of petty Corruptionistans.
"To that end, I would like to have seen a referendum on national allegiance undertaken oblast by oblast. Since no such resort to the will of the people has been made, one has only a vague idea of what the people of Eastern Ukraine want."
"Today's hot war eruption in Ukraine would absolutely not be happening save for the violent coup of February 2014 that overthrew Ukraine’s democratically elected pro-Russian President; and which coup was funded, organized and choreographed by Washington-based neocons, busy-bodies and arms merchants who otherwise had no reason for even existing in the post-Soviet world.
Moreover, by reviewing the voting patterns of the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election we can see exactly how Washington’s blunderbuss intervention in support of the Maidan putsch put the kibosh on stable governance in Kiev and friendly relations with Ukraine’s historic neighbor and suzerain, Russia. That’s because while the 2010 election reflected the stark divisions of the Ukrainian electorate (see map below) it still produced a government that was reasonably acceptable to most of the electorate, and one which proceeded to work toward new arrangements with both Ukraine’s EU neighbors to the west and Russia to the east." David Stockman, https://www.unz.com/article/the-land-where-history-died-part-1/
My reading of the situation is the 2010 presidential election is about as close as you're ever going to get to a democratic assessment of the will of the people. The point being, the USA's support of the Maidan putsch shows the US absolutely could care less about the will of the people in Ukraine. (Or anywhere.)
"Many of them are Russian speakers and some are Russian nationals."
There's a green and yellow map in the link below, showing percentages of Russian speaking people in Ukraine. In the east and south, (which very loosely appears to mean Donbas and Crimea) 84-92.7% of the population speaks Russian. In the east-center 59.3% speak Russian. It is only in the west and center where "Ukrainian" language dominates absolutely, but in these regions there are significant minorities of Russian speaking people. In the central region, the percentage is 25.6%.
It is not clear to me "Ukrainian", the "official" language of "Ukraine" is the language of the majority of Ukrainian citizens. (I'm not sure.)
I think the people of Donbas and Crimea are scared to death of being ruled by a government dominated by far right (Nazi) elements from the western regions of the presently united country. They will be hunted down and crushed, exactly the way Jews were hunted down and crushed in WWII.
Putin isn't stupid and he's made clear all along what he will find acceptable and what won't be tolerated. He did not have an ambition to reunite Ukraine with Russia, to "sort of" recompose the USSR. He did have a strong interest-- as Mearsheimer has defined it, an existential interest-- in keeping Russia from being hemmed in along his borders by NATO member nations.
I honestly do not blame him. If I was Putin and understood Russian-speaking people in a neighboring country were going to become the subjects of a genocidal repression, I would not stand idly by either.
Both in 2016 and 2020, the anti-Russian stance of the Democrats was a signal of their insanity. Now they've done it. They've done, done, done it.
"If so, what is the US objective? Presumably to expand the war with the aim of smashing Russia and placing NATO on the borders of China, while US oligarchs and corporations loot Russia, which is to be broken into a collection of petty Corruptionistans."
It was clear to me back in the 1990s the intention of the USA was to smash Russia (and the other regions of the former USSR) so hard they would never be able to rise up again.
Putin wasn't supposed to happen. For a time, the privatization of public wealth into the private hands of oligarchs seemed to be working in such a way Russia had no political power...As if it wasn't a nation. (I had heard it described as, not a nation, but a gas station.) The oligarchs had tremendous power, but somehow not political power. (If that makes sense.)
It is easier to get your way when oligarchs are in control of precious natural resources such as oil, as we see in US relations with Saudi Arabia (oligarchs as monarchs.)
Now Putin has real political power and is in a position to control the oligarchs and break them, should he so choose. A nation of Russia has real power and is a player again. (I underestimated this and bought into the idea Russia couldn't wage a longer war.) The US elites can't tolerate this. It all has to be either smashed to bits or utterly under their control in some other way. It just plain seems insane, precisely the way Hitler seemed insane.
The NY Times has reported nothing corroborating the US News and World Report you linked.
Here is what it says about what is happening in the war today, April 23:
"Despite increased fighting, Russian forces have made “no major gains” in the past 24 hours, as Ukrainian counterattacks continue to hinder their efforts, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said on Saturday, in its latest assessment of the war.
The ministry said that, despite Russia’s claim that it had conquered the heavily battered southern port of Mariupol, where the last remaining Ukrainian fighters have holed up in a steel plant with civilians, “heavy fighting” continued to frustrate Russian attempts to capture the city, slowing their progress into the Donbas region."
If I recall correctly, Colonel Macgregor stated the military of "Ukraine" did not have counterattack capacity.
Thank you for all your comments, which I hope to come back to eventually. But my effort to replace a failed home computer resulted in the acquisition of a mini PC via Amazon which proved to be non-functional. So at present I am able to comment only from the office where I am supposed to be doing something else!
The clip with Biden blaming everything on Putin...We know that's ridiculous, but with the level of hatred it has been possible to generate in the USA, I suspect it will work like a charm.
ReplyDeleteThe uptick in inflation does not coincide with the war, but there's no doubt most people will assume it does. In January, the CPI rose 0.6%, placing annual inflation at 7.5%, the largest annual increase since 1982. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th. Runaway inflation was sufficiently covered by the financial press, but my impression is the mainstream media has ignored it until now, when it is so severe the average American notices every time they buy groceries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmFUh1r4X3s
I watched all of the Mearsheimer interview posted here. Earlier I had watched most of a posted Mearsheimer lecture given at the University of Chicago. There's a lot in these with which to agree and disagree. I'm relatively certain, though, Mearsheimer and Macgregor have different views. Do you agree they have different views? What do you think about this?
ReplyDeleteIn Mearsheimer's lecture, I noted he attributed the US's motives in Ukraine to be based on a desire to expand NATO eastward. Between the time of that lecture and now, the US hasn't pressed very hard to include Ukraine in NATO. (It is amazing in these issues to remember 2016-2020 Trump was President, and not only was Trump not pushing for NATO expansion, he was pushing for an end to NATO.)
I was also frankly appalled when Mearsheimer suggested in supporting the Maidan revolution, the US was supporting an expansion of democratic rule. He really said that. His objection was the US failed to appreciate Russia's perspective of democracy in Ukraine as an encroachment.
To me, a Russian V-day by May 9th, doesn't seem unrealistic. I'm confused, though, what a Russian military victory by May 9th means if this is the opening salvo of WWIII. A pause in open military conflict?
You make some interesting points. My computer just died. I will respond further when l am able.
DeleteMearsheimer reviews the war in terms of the American interest and concludes that the US should be building an alliance with Russia against China.
DeleteThat makes sense from an American political point of view, but I am more interested in the moral rights of the people of Ukraine. To that end, I would like to have seen a referendum on national allegiance undertaken oblast by oblast. Since no such resort to the will of the people has been made, one has only a vague idea of what the people of Eastern Ukraine want. Many of them are Russian speakers and some are Russian nationals. However, such opinion poll data as exist suggests that in most if not all of Eastern Ukraine the majority of the population has favored remaining within a Unite Ukraine.
In this respect, Crimea was different from the rest of Eastern Ukraine as there is no doubt that a large majority of Crimeans wanted union with Russia.
The present conflict between Russia and Ukraine thus seems different from the last and it seems necessary to conclude that Russia is engaged in a war of aggression.
It is an war, however, that Ukraine seems to have done everything in its power to initiate through brutal attacks on the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk and the vicious anti-Russian racism of many of Zelensky's backers. That Zelensky has done nothing to restrain this taunting of Russian "cockroaches" suggests that he is under US direction for the purpose of fomenting a war in the US interest.
If so, what is the US objective? Presumably to expand the war with the aim of smashing Russia and placing NATO on the borders of China, while US oligarchs and corporations loot Russia, which is to be broken into a collection of petty Corruptionistans.
PS. I accidentally deleted your last short comment. Sorry.
Delete"To that end, I would like to have seen a referendum on national allegiance undertaken oblast by oblast. Since no such resort to the will of the people has been made, one has only a vague idea of what the people of Eastern Ukraine want."
ReplyDelete"Today's hot war eruption in Ukraine would absolutely not be happening save for the violent coup of February 2014 that overthrew Ukraine’s democratically elected pro-Russian President; and which coup was funded, organized and choreographed by Washington-based neocons, busy-bodies and arms merchants who otherwise had no reason for even existing in the post-Soviet world.
Moreover, by reviewing the voting patterns of the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election we can see exactly how Washington’s blunderbuss intervention in support of the Maidan putsch put the kibosh on stable governance in Kiev and friendly relations with Ukraine’s historic neighbor and suzerain, Russia. That’s because while the 2010 election reflected the stark divisions of the Ukrainian electorate (see map below) it still produced a government that was reasonably acceptable to most of the electorate, and one which proceeded to work toward new arrangements with both Ukraine’s EU neighbors to the west and Russia to the east." David Stockman, https://www.unz.com/article/the-land-where-history-died-part-1/
My reading of the situation is the 2010 presidential election is about as close as you're ever going to get to a democratic assessment of the will of the people. The point being, the USA's support of the Maidan putsch shows the US absolutely could care less about the will of the people in Ukraine. (Or anywhere.)
"Many of them are Russian speakers and some are Russian nationals."
There's a green and yellow map in the link below, showing percentages of Russian speaking people in Ukraine. In the east and south, (which very loosely appears to mean Donbas and Crimea) 84-92.7% of the population speaks Russian. In the east-center 59.3% speak Russian. It is only in the west and center where "Ukrainian" language dominates absolutely, but in these regions there are significant minorities of Russian speaking people. In the central region, the percentage is 25.6%.
It is not clear to me "Ukrainian", the "official" language of "Ukraine" is the language of the majority of Ukrainian citizens. (I'm not sure.)
Here is the link:
ReplyDeletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_language_in_Ukraine#:~:text=The%20largest%20regions%20of%20support,western%20Ukraine%20were%20in%20opposition.
I think the people of Donbas and Crimea are scared to death of being ruled by a government dominated by far right (Nazi) elements from the western regions of the presently united country. They will be hunted down and crushed, exactly the way Jews were hunted down and crushed in WWII.
ReplyDeletePutin isn't stupid and he's made clear all along what he will find acceptable and what won't be tolerated. He did not have an ambition to reunite Ukraine with Russia, to "sort of" recompose the USSR. He did have a strong interest-- as Mearsheimer has defined it, an existential interest-- in keeping Russia from being hemmed in along his borders by NATO member nations.
I honestly do not blame him. If I was Putin and understood Russian-speaking people in a neighboring country were going to become the subjects of a genocidal repression, I would not stand idly by either.
Both in 2016 and 2020, the anti-Russian stance of the Democrats was a signal of their insanity. Now they've done it. They've done, done, done it.
"If so, what is the US objective? Presumably to expand the war with the aim of smashing Russia and placing NATO on the borders of China, while US oligarchs and corporations loot Russia, which is to be broken into a collection of petty Corruptionistans."
ReplyDeleteIt was clear to me back in the 1990s the intention of the USA was to smash Russia (and the other regions of the former USSR) so hard they would never be able to rise up again.
Putin wasn't supposed to happen. For a time, the privatization of public wealth into the private hands of oligarchs seemed to be working in such a way Russia had no political power...As if it wasn't a nation. (I had heard it described as, not a nation, but a gas station.) The oligarchs had tremendous power, but somehow not political power. (If that makes sense.)
It is easier to get your way when oligarchs are in control of precious natural resources such as oil, as we see in US relations with Saudi Arabia (oligarchs as monarchs.)
Now Putin has real political power and is in a position to control the oligarchs and break them, should he so choose. A nation of Russia has real power and is a player again. (I underestimated this and bought into the idea Russia couldn't wage a longer war.) The US elites can't tolerate this. It all has to be either smashed to bits or utterly under their control in some other way. It just plain seems insane, precisely the way Hitler seemed insane.
The NY Times has reported nothing corroborating the US News and World Report you linked.
ReplyDeleteHere is what it says about what is happening in the war today, April 23:
"Despite increased fighting, Russian forces have made “no major gains” in the past 24 hours, as Ukrainian counterattacks continue to hinder their efforts, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said on Saturday, in its latest assessment of the war.
The ministry said that, despite Russia’s claim that it had conquered the heavily battered southern port of Mariupol, where the last remaining Ukrainian fighters have holed up in a steel plant with civilians, “heavy fighting” continued to frustrate Russian attempts to capture the city, slowing their progress into the Donbas region."
If I recall correctly, Colonel Macgregor stated the military of "Ukraine" did not have counterattack capacity.
Thank you for all your comments, which I hope to come back to eventually. But my effort to replace a failed home computer resulted in the acquisition of a mini PC via Amazon which proved to be non-functional. So at present I am able to comment only from the office where I am supposed to be doing something else!
Delete