Saturday, August 13, 2011

Great Britain Great No Longer

Image Source

The American historian, Carroll Quigley (1910-1977) explained how England emerged as the World's greatest empire (1588 - 19??) by virtue of a geographical advantage: the security provided by the narrow waters of the English Channel, an advantage that ended with the creation of new weapons based on air power in the period after 1935. ...

Having security from the Continental powers gave Britain freedom of action. It could chose whether or not to intervene in Continental disputes and, if it did intervene, it could limit its commitment. If such a limited commitment were exhausted it could choose to break off or increase the commitment. Moreover, by supporting the second strongest Continental power against the strongest power, it could frustrate the ambition of the strongest power at rather small cost. By such balance-of-power tactics, Britain played a decisive role on the Continent, while retaining a surplus of resources for imperial ventures.

The Continental powers rarely had such freedom of action:
When the security of a continental Power was threatened by a neighbor, it had no freedom of action, but had to defend itself with all its resources. Clearly, it would be impossible for France to say to itself, "We shall oppose German hegemony on the Continent only to the extent of 50,000 men or of $10 million." Yet as late as 1939, Chamberlain informed France that England's commitment on the Continent for this purpose would be no more than two divisions.

Britain's position on the Atlantic, combined with her naval control of the sea, gave her a great advantage when the new lands to the west of that ocean became one of the chief sources of commercial and naval wealth in the period after 1588. ...

At the same time, Britain's insular position deprived her monarchy of any need for a large professional, mercenary army such as the kings on the Continent used as the chief bulwark of royal absolutism. As a result, the kings of England were unable to prevent the landed gentry from taking control of the government in the period 1642-1690.
The triumph of the landed oligarchy over the monarchy created a social tradition quite distinct from that on the Continent. As a result:
England did not obtain a bureaucracy such as appeared on the Continent. This lack of a separate bureaucracy loyal to the monarch can be seen in the weakness of the professional army ... and also in the lack of a bureaucratic judicial system. In England, the gentry and the younger sons of the landed oligarchy studied law in the Inns of Court and obtained a feeling for tradition and the sanctity of due process of law while still remaining a part of the landed class. In fact this class became the landed class in England just because they obtained control of the bar and the bench and were, thus, in a position to judge all disputes about real property in their own favor. Control of the courts and of the Parliament made it possible for this ruling group in England to override the rights of the peasants in land, to eject them from the land, to enclose the open fields of the medieval system, to deprive the cultivators of their manorial rights and thus to reduce them to the condition of landless rural laborers or of tenants. This advance of the enclosure movement in England made possible the Agricultural Revolution, greatly depopulated the rural areas of England (as described in The Deserted Village of Oliver Goldsmith), and provided a surplus population for the cities, the mercantile and naval marine, and for overseas colonization.
Naturally, during the heyday of Empire, no one in England had any idea that their imperial supremacy was the result of mere chance. Indeed, Britain's extraordinary intellectual and artistic efflorescence during the age of empire pointed entirely the other way. Shakespeare was the poet for all ages. Newton invented modern science. Adam Smith and David Ricardo invented economics. Locke, Berkeley and Hume established the only useful school of philosophy the World has ever known. Britain did not produce the greatest musical composer, but the greatest musical composer, Georg Friedrich Haendel, became a naturalized British citizen.

Thus, when Darwin convinced the world that competitive success was the ultimate measure of all things, how could it be doubted that Britain's extraordinary success was due to the genius of the British nation?

Unfortunately, this delusion drove the British to assume that their post WW2 difficulties would be solved by the more liberal application of British genius. Thus, for example, as Terence Keeley wrote (2)
There is a central myth about British science and economic growth, and it goes like this: science breeds wealth, Britain is in economic decline, therefore Britain has not done enough science. Actually, it is easy to show that a key cause of Britain's economic decline has been that the government has funded too much science...

Post-war British science policy illustrates the folly of wasting money on research. The government decided, as it surveyed the ruins of war-torn Europe in 1945, that the future lay in computers, nuclear power and jet aircraft, so successive administrations poured money into these projects--to vast technical success. The world's first commercial mainframe computer was British, sold by Ferrranti in 1951; the world's first commercial jet aircraft was British, the Comet, in service in 1952; the first nuclear power station was British, Calder Hall, commissioned in 1956; and the world's first and only supersonic commercial jet aircraft was Anglo-French, Concorde, in service in 1976.

Yet these technical advances crippled us economically, because they were so uncommercial. The nuclear generation of electricity, for example, had lost 2.1 billion pounds by 1975 (2.1 billion pounds was a lot then); Concord had lost us, alone, 2.3 billion pounds by 1976; the Comet crashed and America now dominates computers. Had these vast sums of money not been wasted on research, we would now be a significantly richer country.

And science was not the only field in which massive innovation was attempted. During the twentieth century Labour governments pursued a programme of democratic socialism that involved massive nationalization of industry: coal, steel, electricity, railways, gas, airlines, and much else, including partial nationalization of banks by the last Labour Government. The net result, inevitably, was massive overmanning, managerial incompetence and corruption throughout a large part of British industry.

Thus, as any sane person can see, application of British genius to social engineering has done more harm than good. But now Britain is almost entirely in the hands of statist innovators. The idea that Britain's past wealth and intellectual achievements were dependent on the exceptional individual freedom of the British people is rarely considered and never advocated by politicians whatever their political stripe. Thus virtually all wealth accumulates in the hands of either a massively bureaucratic government that now spends more than 50% of the nation's income, or the increasingly foreign business and financial elite that buys protection for its interests by funding elections and paying off politicians as they retire.

In the social, as in the economic sphere, freedom is continually diminished. Political correctness is rigidly enforced not only by government agencies, but increasingly, by individuals brainwashed by the state through the subjection of every citizen to between ten and twenty years of propaganda delivered in the guise of education.

But undoubtedly the most astounding consequence of Britain's psychotic response to the reality of her declining position in the world, is that it aims at the physical and cultural destruction of the British people as a genetic and cultural entity. Government sponsored hate speech is directed at anyone speaking for the preservation of the British race, the existence of which is blandly denied. We are all one happy, identical human race, so the elite inform working class Brits marginalized economically by an influx people from all over the World (3). Yet delusional as they are, the elite, while denying the existence of the British race, champion diversity, never explaining how creating a racially and culturally diverse community can result in anything but either a multicultural disaster or through the process of homogenization, the destruction of diversity.

And, if the images of the English riots provided by the media are at all representative, the process of national auto-genocide in Britain is now far advanced. The English, it would appear, are a minority in all of those urban centers subject to the recent breakdown in social order and decency.

Not only is Great Britain no longer great, it is, except in name, increasingly not even British.

Neither is it democratic, since most of the population are opposed to mass immigration, nor is it civilized. As recent Polish immigrant, Monika Konczyk, told reporters after she had been forced to leap from a second floor apartment set on fire by London rioters:
I came to England because I thought it was a great country full of kind and gentle people. I thought London was a civilised society full of gentlemen and ladies. But it is not like that. England has become a sick society.

I found myself jumping for my life after being attacked by thugs and thieves. They set fire to my building without any thought for anyone's safety.

They were happy for me to die. They were like animals, greedy selfish animals who thought only of themselves.
(1) Carroll Quigley, 1966. Tragedy and Hope.
(2) Terence Kealey, October 13, 1996. Wasting Billions, the Scientific Way (The Sunday Times).
(3) Such reference to the negative impact of immigration on the local population is dismissed by the brainwashed and the propagandists as "racism," whereas it is merely an expression of the impact of immigration on the interests of the indigenous people of Britain. It in no way implies criticism of immigrants, no doubt fine people in most cases, who are doing what each of God's creatures must do, serving their own interest, as best they can. Provided they do so in accordance with law, they should not be condemned for being immigrants. Illegal immigrants, however, who are numerous in Britain, are another matter.

Friday, August 12, 2011

UK Riots Update August 13, 2011

Tariq Jahan holds a picture of his son,
Haroon, murdered during Birmingham riots 
Mark Duggan's Ganster Relations The Sun
Britain’s Riots: Thuggery, Looting, Lawlessness… By the Ruling Class Global Research
England is sick, says woman who jumped from blazing building Telegraph
Legacy of a society that believes in nothing A.N. Wilson
Something has gone horribly wrong in Britain Peter Oborne
The culture of greed and impunity we are witnessing on our TV screens stretches right up into corporate boardrooms and the Cabinet. It embraces the police and large parts of our media. It is not just its damaged youth, but Britain itself that needs a moral reformation.
Who is to blame? John Ward
POLITICANS MUST TAKE THE BLAME FOR RIOTS, SAYS MP David Davies
Three Pakistani youths murdered by hit and run driver in Birmingham Times of India
Islamists call for further violence as cover for terrorist outrage Montreal Gazette
Race forms backdrop to riots Guardian
Social media not quite  the tool of democratic change some claimed CBC
Primary school assistant pleads guilty to looting Guardian
Disbelief as looting and violence spread to Gloucester Guardian
Ghanaians arrested, 3 charged Ghana Web

Thursday, August 11, 2011

NATO Mission Failure in Libya

By Thierry Meyssan
From Voltair.net

The following is a rough translation of the French language article by Thierry Meyssan, that appears on Voltairenet.org.

Meyssan explains the failure of NATO's strategy to overthrow the Gaddafi regime. He argues that if the mission is continued, NATO's strategy will continue to be ineffectual and that, if Gaddafi is killed, the war will likely spread, not only across North Africa, but also into Southern Europe.

Despite the bleak picture, the project will not be abandoned. In Iraq we saw a "cakewalk" turn into a long drawn out and bloody war, which has yet to give way to peace. In Libya, NATO will not be deterred by the spilling of blood. NATO is the most powerfully armed military camp the world has ever seen. Unless NATO itself collapses due to circumstances unforeseen, it will continue blundering from one war crime to the next, bombing and killing until Libya submits or there are no more Libyans left to offer submission.


After 150 days of bombing, NATO has razed many facilities in Libya, but has achieved no significant military result. This was due to the lack of strategic planning. NATO applied in Libya methods designed for other environments, but which proved useless in this particular case. The greatest military alliance in history, formed to confront the USSR, dreamed of becoming the world's policeman, but the transformation has failed.

NATO intervened in Libya with a UN mandate to protect civilians, but it sought an objective beyond the UN mandate, which was to change the political regime of the country.

After almost 150 days of war, NATO has failed to undermine Libya's institutions. Given the disparity of forces, we must admit the military failure and question the strategy.

The Alliance started from a faulty analysis that the eastern and southern tribes hostile to Muammar Gaddafi would easily take Tripoli with the aid of air support. Instead, however, the tribes viewed the bombing as a foreign aggression and rallied to the "Brother Leader" to repel the invasion of crusaders.

As a result, the Alliance could count on only two ground components: the 3000 trained soldiers that General Younes Abdel Fatah had brought with him when he defected from Gaddafi, and the hundreds, perhaps thousands, of fighters from the Arab networks of Saudi Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, known as the "Al Qaeda nebula."

After the killing, in a particularly atrocious way, of General Younes by jihadists of Al Qaeda, rebel forces have collapsed: Younes' soldiers rallyied to Colonel Gaddafi to fight Al Qaeda and avenge their leader. Operational command of rebel forces has devolved to Haftar Khalifa, i.e., the special forces of the CIA, which does not hesitate to recruit anyone to fight for the rebel cause, including child soldiers.

This improvised army, announces every other day a victory, but in fact suffers only defeats. Each battle scenario is the same: NATO bombs the population, forcing them to flee their homes. The locality is immediately besieged by rebel forces who announce that they have gained ground. Only then does the battle begin with the Libyan army moving into the city and massacring the rebels. Then the population moves back into the partially destroyed town.

The Atlantic Alliance could interpret U.N. Resolution 1973 broadly and consider that although the text explicitly prohibit the deployment of foreign troops on the ground, such a deployment is legitimate if it is intended to "protect civilians".

NATO would then face a population armed to the teeth and ready to do battle. The Libyan leader Gaddafi has indeed delivered a Kalashnikov and ammunition to every adult male. While the Libyan population lacks organization compared with that of NATO, it has a clear numerical superiority, and is prepared to accept heavy losses, whereas NATO troops are unwilling to die for Tripoli.

At the outset, strategists in Washington felt that this asymmetry was of no important because NATO has complete control of the air.

This doctrine, unchallenged in the United States, has been openly challenged by European members of NATO. Belief in the superiority of air power arose with General Giulio Douhet based on the outcome of the Italo-Ottoman War, that is to say the Libyan war of 1911. At the time, the Italians bombed Tripoli, the first aerial bombardment in history. Frightened by this new weapon, the Ottoman Empire ceded without a fight. Italian troops took possession of Tripoli without firing a shot, which convinced Douhet that it was possible to win a war solely with air power. This analysis is incorrect because it confuses the reaction to aerial bombardment of Libya's Ottoman rulers with the reaction of Libyans. The Libyan response to Italian aggression occurred later with the Libyan uprising.

Exactly a century later, the same conceptual error about the significance of air power has been repeated. To control the country, NATO would have to in send ground troops and, like the Italians in the years 1912-14, kill more than half of the population of Tripoli, which is not exactly the purpose of Resolution 1973.

To date, the Atlantic Alliance has designed its bombing campaign according to the doctrine of Douhet and improvements that have been made since, including the theory of the five circles of John A. Warden III, who gained experienced in Iraq. The idea is that the targets should not be chosen to destroy the enemy armed forces, but to paralyze the command centers, including cutting the means of transmission and circulation.

NATO has discovered that Libya is ruled by people's congresses and Muammar Gaddafi has reduced most of the administration functions to their simplest expression. There are no major departments sovereign, just small offices. The ministers are not leading figures, but team leaders who surround themselves with skilled professionals. The power is diluted and elusive. What was a headache for businessmen who came to Libya -- finding the right people -- has become a puzzle to NATO strategists -- who should they target? Five months of bombing have failed to find the answer.

The Atlantic Alliance is fixated on Muammar Gaddafi. Is he not the Father of the Nation? Would not eliminating him, destroy the principle of authority in Libyan society, resulting in instant Iraqisation, which would plunge the country into chaos? But, unlike Iraq after the removal of Saddam, tribal structure and the horizontal structures of power would remain. Even when torn by internal conflicts, the Libyan people remain an organic entity defiant of the foreign invasion. Not only would no military problem be solved by the removal of Gaddafi, but the theater of war would be cease to be delimited: the war would inevitably spill across North Africa and into southern Europe. Killing Gaddafi could be NATO's worst mistake.

In the absence of an effective strategy, the Alliance has fallen back on the old habits of the American military culture, those of the Korean War and Vietnam: making life impossible for the population so as to dissociate it from the leadership. Since the beginning of Ramadan, NATO has strengthened the naval blockade to cut off the supply of gasoline and food, it has bombed power plants, water supply systems, agricultural cooperatives, small fishing ports and public meeting halls.

In short, the Alliance has done exactly the opposite of what it was mandated to do by the Security Council and the various parliaments of the Member States: instead of protecting the civilian population against a tyrant, NATO terrorizes civilians to compel them to rebel against The leader they support.

This strategy is expected to last until the end of Ramadan, by which time there will remain only three weeks for the Alliance to achieve significant victory before the bell rings on September 19, and the United Nations General Assembly meets. It could seek clarification on the current operation, note the failure of the Security Council to restore peace, and enforce its own recommendations.

For the resumption of fighting on the ground in early September, NATO has supplied weapon to the rebels in Misrata and will clear the road for the advance on Zlitan. France has refused to supply additional weapons to the rebels, but Qatar has supplied a plane to deliver weapons, despite the UN embargo. On the night of August 8 to 9, the Alliance cleared Majer Hill that could serve as an outpost in the defense of Zlitan. It also bombed farms and tents that housed twenty displaced families, killing 85 people including 33 children.

NATO Stops Gadhaffi From Killing Some of His Own People By Killing Them First

By Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya
GlobalResearch.ca

TRIPOLI, Global Research, August 10, 2011 – The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) conducted intensive attacks on Libyan civilians in the night of August 8 and in the early hours of August 9, 2011 from approximately 2:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m. EET.

Civilians in Tripoli and many other cities in Libya were bombed indiscriminately by NATO.

A large number of casualties occurred in the city of Zliten, in the district of Misurata. In Zliten, 85 people were killed including 33 children, 32 women, and 20 men as a result of NATO’s deliberate targeting of residential areas and civilian infrastructure. Many of the injured civilian victims are in critical condition and near death.

Zliten has been under constant NATO bombardment for several days. The recent NATO attacks started at about 11:30 p.m. EET on August 8, 2011. At least 7 civilian homes belonging to local farmers were destroyed, killing entire families. In all 20 families were the targets of the NATO bombings.

The images below pertain to destroyed farm houses in Majer, near Zliten.






















Destroyed farm house in Majer, near Zliten. Copyright of all photos above. Matthew Ozanon 2011

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Allan Watts discusses nothing



Alan Wilson Watts (6 January 1915 – 16 November 1973) was a British philosopher, writer, and speaker, best known as an interpreter and popularizer of Eastern philosophy for a Western audience.

Read more

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Understanding the US Credit Downgrade

Standard and Poors has downgraded the US Government's credit rating from Triple A to Double A plus. This is supposed to reflect a decline in the ability of the U.S. Government to repay debt.

On the face of it, this is a piece of total nonsense from a totally discredited source.

It is nonsense because the US Government prints its own money, so both interest payment and debt repayment can always be made.

The source is discredited by the fact that, with the other US ratings agencies, Standard and Poors rated toxic mortgage bonds Triple A, when they should have been rated Triple F crap. That they were not rated Triple F crap is the reason that the US and many other countries are now loaded with debt, both public and private.

That the more astute Wall Street operatives knew the mortgage bonds were crap at the time they were rated is evident from the fact that Goldman Sachs profited mightily by shorting the Triple A-rated crap, they'd only just created.

But even though S and P's downgrade of the US credit rating is bollocks from a totally worthless source -- sustained in business only by a stupid government regulation that requires an outside agency to rate all newly created bonds -- it is not insignificant.

Markets reacted sharply to the downgrade, but not as you'd expect if the downgrade had anything to do with the ability of the US Government to pay its debts or to maintain the purchasing power of the dollar.

On the contrary, US Government bonds rallied, and stocks sold off, because people evidently preferred to own dollars than real assets.

This response is consistent with the expectation that there will be further cuts to government spending, which will cause further economic contraction, which will drive down both incomes and business profits, which will mean a further decline in asset prices.

So what was it all about?

Paul Craig Roberts explains the downgrade as a blow by Wall Street in an ongoing struggle for dominance between Wall Street on the one hand and the military/security complex on the other hand.

Wall St. knows it has to down-size and it wants to ensure that the military/security complex,  its rival for power and influence over government, is downsized also. 

 The downgrade is damaging to the credibility of the Obama administration and thus intensifies pressure for spending cuts. The response of the military/security complex, suggests Roberts, is to demand cuts to social programs, not to the wars of imperial conquest or to the subjugation of the American people to TSA groping and the Homeland Security apparatus of civilian oppression justified by bogus terror scares featuring incompetent morons attempting to set light to their underwear or blow airliners out of the sky with build-it-on-board liquid bombs.

So far as it goes, the explanation is plausible. But there is another contender for resources and influence that Roberts does not mention: namely, the corporate sector, including both the military/security sector and the rest.

Nothing has done more damage to America's financial and material well being than the corporate sector's pursuit of wage-cost savings through off-shoring of production and services, out-sourcing of supply to low-wage economies, and the Federal-Government-sanctioned open door to illegal immigrants prepared to work for minimum wages, or for less than minimum wages in the roaring underground economy.

Thus, the corporate sector, which is the chief cause of collapsing demand, falling real wages and rising unemployment, needs government stimulus to raises demand and maintain profits .

In any case, the debt downgrade needs to be seen in the context of a struggle over the distribution of wealth among four sectors: finance, the military/security complex, the rest of the corporate sector and ordinary folks needing jobs and expecting to receive the pensions and other social services they've paid for through their taxes.

Almost certainly, the struggle will be resolved at the expense of the people, although as riots rage across England, the thought of revolution must be stirring in the minds not only of the people, but the ruling elite.

In summary, Wall Street pressure for further cuts to government spending is consistent with our view that the economy is being managed with the aim of driving wages in America toward parity with wages in Asia: this to be achieved by the maintenance of depression conditions that prevent nominal wages from rising, combined with continual currency devaluation that inflates away much of the real value of both wages and debts.

See also:
Mish's Three Cardinal Rules of Stimulus: All Wrong
Why economics is bunk and what that means for the economy
America's inflationary depression
USA versus China: Wage Convergence, Wealth Divergence and Global Hegemony
US Economy: Expecting the Unexpected
USA Boom or Bust: The Next Decade
Why China Booms While America Slumps
China's Economy Already Larger Than America's

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

English riots: Update August 10

UK RIOTS - INSIDE JOB? Aangirfan
London police ordered to stand and observe' as capital burned Daily Mail
"These bastards are not English" RT
Policing seems to work The Daily Mash
London descends into anarchy Melanie Phillips
Bleeding, I called 999. A tired man told me to go home Andrew Gilligan, The Telegraph
Even looters with Blackberrys can be ‘poor’ Liberal Conspiracy
London burns; Tripoli calm Global Research
London riots: 'we can't cope', police admit Telegraph
As rioters looted and burned their way through London’s shopping centres and high streets for a third successive night, Scotland Yard’s 6,000 street officers were hopelessly outmanoeuvred.
Middle class people worried about job security sign up for course in looting Daily Mash
Eng-a-land swings like a pendulum: Riots create image problems YaYa Canada
Smoking or not, Mark Duggan’s gun was loaded John Ward
Now in Manchester and the Midlands Daily Mail
Trouble flares in Salford, Wolverhampton and West Bromwich‎ Guardian
Spirit of the Blitz: London fights back Telegraph
Business calculates the cost of rioting FT
There's the upside. It may make the GDP growth number positive again

English Immigrant Underclass Riots: Who Benefits

The imaginative convent girls over at Aangirfan raise the possibility (and here) that the riots now spreading through Britain's major urban centers -- London, Liverpool, Birmingham, Bristol -- may not have been so spontaneous as the media has so far generally assumed. We have seen how social destabilization in the Middle East and North Africa has been driven by an organized storm of Tweeting and other forms of digital networking, mostly in the English language oddly enough, assisted surely by agents provocateurs on the ground. Should we dismiss the possibility of something similar in England?

The Australian reports:
THE destruction in dozens of parts of London began to look like the first "BlackBerry riots" yesterday, with gangs using the smartphones to co-ordinate some of their targets for looting and burning.

Instant messages sent on BlackBerry devices brought a 100-strong mob to pillage the Tesco store at Bethnal Green, while nobody touched the larger Tesco in the low-income area of Hackney, barely 200m from the spot where the third day of rioting began with a broad-daylight attack on a police car.

The use of social media and BlackBerry messages to identify targets led many politicians to characterise the rioting as a coherent operation, casting it as a deliberate protest against police brutality, government spending cuts and high unemployment.

The view looked very different at street level, where it was evident that the driving force of the riots was a brutal mob mentality: diverse, opportunistic and terrifyingly unpredictable.
A riot, characterized by politicians as a "coherent operation" sparking a "brutal mob mentality," to which the police responded only slowly and inadequately, certainly raises questions. Questions that seem to make the left distinctly uncomfortable. The Guardian is quick to reassure its readers, who might otherwise suffer the terrible experience of having to hold someone morally responsible for their actions, that "Tottenham's young people are rioting because they see no future."

Likewise, mass immigration advocate and former UK ambassador, Craig Murray, comforts his blog followers with the assurance that this "is not a race issue," which I suppose it's not if, like Murray, you believe that there is no such thing as the British race, or therefore, presumably, any race at all, other than one happy, equal and identical human race.

But if the left are uncomfortable, is the right in any way benefited?

Quite possibly.

Although the British media are generally reluctant to mention it, the riots are essentially an insurrection by a largely immigrant, frequently criminal, almost totally ignorant, usually welfare dependent, unemployed underclass. The vast majority of the indigenous people of Britain believe that these people have been foisted upon them by an arrogant ruling elite answerable only to the monied interest, which sees mass immigration as the way to break the power of trades unions, drive down wages and solve the servant problem.

As the Daily Mail reported on August 5th, the day before the Tottenham riot started:
Nearly three quarters of Britons think there are too many immigrants in the country, a survey revealed yesterday.

Fears: Seven in 10 Briton believe there are too many immigrants in the country and an even higher proportion believe they are having a negative impact on public services
Fears: Seven in 10 Briton believe there are too many immigrants in the country and an even higher proportion believe they are having a negative impact on public services

Some 76 per cent of those questioned said immigration had put too much pressure on hospitals, transport services and schools.

The poll exposes the huge on-going scale of public worry over migration levels in recent years.

Under Labour’s open door immigration policy, the population was boosted by more than 3.2million arrivals from overseas.

Home Secretary Theresa May has made clear her determination to reduce net migration to the ‘tens of thousands’.
But then, the Mail report continues with this absurdity:
But the task of the coalition government in trying to get migrant numbers down to manageable levels has been made harder by a recent spike in new arrivals.
Interpretation: The immigrant flood cannot be stemmed, because, well, it's a flood.

In fact, the immigrant flood cannot be stemmed because the British have been indoctrinated since the time of the government of Ted Heath, a totalitarian in conservative's clothing, that to proclaim Britain as the home of the British people, open to immigration only in accordance with the democratic will of the people, is to reveal oneself as an far-right-wing extremist and racist: racist and far-right-wing extremist being the terms consistently applied by the liberal-left as synonyms for opponent to mass immigration.

This leaves British politicians in a difficult situation. To flout the wishes of the majority of the population on the issue of immigration, at a time when Britain's major urban centers including the capital London, are being taken over by immigrants, is becoming increasingly difficult, and is certainly unconstitutional.

However, to breach the psychological edifice that has been created to thwart the democratic will also presents hazards.

For the left to do it, as some are contemplating, will generate howls of betrayal from the immigrant community that comprises a large part of their electoral base, as well as huge disphoria among the more indoctrinated elements of the white lib-left.

For the right to do it, means defying the monied interest and facing the endless and hate-filled taunts of racist and fascist from the left.

What, then, to do? Spark a massive race riot, hold the police back until the thing is blazing across the nation, then use the disaster as the rationale for necessary restraint on immigration, thereby establishing a populist base for the right?

Monday, August 8, 2011

London riots Update August 9

These riots were about race. Why ignore the fact? Telegraph
High end looting... it's all the riot NZ Herald
Tottenham's young people are rioting as they see no future Gruniard
They evidently see a future in theft and violence
Riots spread: Birmingham, Nottingham, Liverpool and Bristol ABC News
Gangsta Britain: people forced to strip by looters Daily Mail
Keep away from Britain! Governments warm Daily Mail
UK Riots: 16,000 Officers and Plastic Bullets Daily Mail
FALSE FLAG LONDON RIOTS? Aangirfan
If you see a fed... SHOOT! The Age
London riots: 'This isn't a protest.. it's madness' Mirror
Destabilization by social media comes to Britain Bloomberg
The London Mob Rules Vancouver Sun
Rioting spreads to Birmingham Express and Star
* Shop windows in the city centre smashed, clothes and mobile phones stolen
* Thugs with knives running through the street, photographer beaten up
* Police tonight condemned the thugs: Arresting them would be more use
David Cameron cancels holiday to deal with London riots Herald Sun
London violence raises 2012 Olympic concerns LongIslandPress.com
England cricket team stranded by rioters in Birmingham Herald Sun
Red sky at night, Tottenham's alight - as looters get to work Daily Mail
* Furniture to die for
* This wasn't a protest - it was shopping with violence
Tottenham: a community blighted by drugs and gun crime Telegraph
Riots go city wide Telegraph
Rolling coverage of the third night of London violence Telegraph
Tottenham: Our community was dying. now it's dead Mirror

Sunday, August 7, 2011

Tottenham Riot and Multicultural Bollocks

Tottenham residents express their disapproval of
the police: dozens injured. Source

On August 5, the Sun newspaper reported
A GUNMAN was killed by cops last night in a shoot-out in which an officer survived when a bullet seemingly hit his radio.

He was downed by a marksman after firing first and hitting the officer. Witnesses said police had shouted at the man to stop but he ignored them.

...The officers had been attempting to carry out an arrest under Operation Trident, which deals with gun crime in the black community.

The Independent Police Complaints Commission has launched an investigation into the shooting.
The incident, which occurred in the London suburb of Tottenham, prompted an overnight riot two days later during which, according to the Guardian's report, residents expressed their anger toward the police in the following ways:
One group pulled a safe out of the William Hill bookmakers while a boy, probably no more than 12, ran by with a television. Others came running with shopping trolleys to load up.

A few minutes later, a man with a mask approached us, accusing us of being police and warning us to leave or he would "fetch his friends".

Flames rages through a building in Tottenham. Fire crews were
prevented from tackling it in case they were attacked by rioters. Source

... A large building not far from Bruce Grove tube station had been gutted. Its basement was once a jewellers. "A nice man," one of a pair of women standing on the corner said. "Now he's lost everything."

... Further down, the 1930s building once occupied by Carpetright was also gutted, its walls bowed and threatening to collapse.

"There were once flats above there, too," a woman [said] "They don't know if everyone got out," she said.
Concerning which, John Ward writes:
The Tottenham unpleasantness last night had all the hallmarks of a classic inner-city riot, the key catalysts for which are the police doing their job, black youths feeling their livelihood is being threatened ...

The tragedy these days is that, sadly, the Left will have a comeback against observations such as those above. Apart from the standard “You’re a racist dinosaur”, the shout will be “It’s the cuts”, followed by “The People are showing their disgust at social unfairness” and, very probably, “What, and you believe the police do you?” The greedy and corrupt in society have thus given this rabble and their sympathisers such excuses. There is, however, no excuse at all for West Indian gun-based lawlessness: it’s been with us for twenty years, and the profound social problems that derive from loose familial structures therein have been part of inner-city British life since the mid 1970s.

The difference now, I suspect, is that the days of fluffy tolerance are almost gone. And as the depression gets worse over the next year or so, it will disappear completely. But when it comes to gun-crime specifically, this is really a smokescreen for ‘hard-drugs dealing’. And in this area specifically, the British Establishment most certainly does have a case to answer.

The reality is that casual – ‘recreational’ – powder-sniffing is a major facet of our culture. Even in the highest circles of power – witness dead Tories in toilets (still no Coroner’s decision on that one, by the way) and nicknames like Tooting Norton. Which is why I have often said and written in the past that the Colombian marching powder may yet bring down Camerlot.
It appears that the underdog-loving, immigrant-embracing, law-an-order-hating lib-left have made a right hideous, corrupt, dangerous and disgusting mess of the old country.

THIS JUST IN:

Looting 'fuelled by social exclusion' Gruniard
Poor buggers didn't all have a 36 inch flat screen TV
EU demands Britain admit immigrants intending to go straight on to benefits Telegraph
And what the benefits won't cover, they can just go out and steal like everyone else
Local MP on Tottenham riot Sun
Tottenham riot mob tried to torch car with baby inside Sun
Mark Duggan: profile of Tottenham police shooting victim Guardian
Police corruption and the UK drug trade Aangirfan
Tottenham Anti-Police Protestor Poses With His Loot Twitpick
Tottenham residents help themselves to more in "anti-police" riots Daily Mail
* Three police hospitalized after being hit by fast-moving vehicle
* Racism campaigner says rioters had legitimate grievances
* Three fire engines come under attack on second night of rioting
* Teenagers told 'bring knives and hammers' to clashes in Enfield
The Tottenham Dynamic Craig Murray
Tottenham riot: burning of Carpet Right in pics Liberal Conspiracy

Latest Update

Saturday, August 6, 2011

US Navy SEALs: Two Helicopters

US Navy helicopter: Abbottabad, Pakistan

Discussing the May 2nd raid by US Navy SEALs on what was said to be Osama Bin Laden's hide-away in Abbottabad, Pakistan, Paul Craig Roberts writes:
In the immediate aftermath of bin Laden’s alleged murder by [U.S. Navy] SEALs, Pakistani TV interviewed the next door neighbor to bin Laden’s alleged compound. Someone supplied the video with an English translation running at the bottom of the video. According to the translation, the next door neighbor, Mr. Bashir, said that he watched the entire operation from the roof of his house. There were three helicopters. Only one landed. About a dozen men got out and entered the house. They shortly returned and boarded the helicopter. When the helicopter lifted off it exploded, killing all aboard. Mr. Bashir reports seeing bodies and pieces of bodies all over.
the US soldiers who undertook the alleged assassination of bin Laden were members of Navy Seal Team 6.

Today, it was reported that a helicopter crash in Afghanistan killed 31 Americans, including 22 members of Navy SEALs Team 6.

Was that just a grim coincidence? Or is one report somehow related to the other?

Another witness to the US raid on Bin Laden's Abbottabad compound, Sadik Aale Mohammad, who lives about a mile from the massive Pakistan Army compound in Abbottabad reported that on the night of the US raid:
the power in town went out a couple of hours before the raid, which was unusual as was the way in which unidentified troops were hustling about prior to the raid. The power was restored 15 minutes after the raid. Around midnight, they first started hearing firing and blasts, grenades. When the helicopter crashed, there was a huge bang.
Who, one wonders, was doing all that shooting, since Osama bin Laden was said to be unarmed? Was the Pakistan Army aware of the raid on their territory? It's hard to believe they were not, since the raid took place within a mile of a major Pakistani military base. And the power outage and blackout would have provided cover for Pakistani forces. So did Pakistan forces take out one of the American helicopters? If so, they are not saying.

But in any case, the two reported incidents would have resulted in a large number of dead Navy SEALs.

Or have those who may have died in the helicopter crash following the heroic assassination of an unarmed, sick old man, only now been reported killed -- supposedly, during an anti-insurgency operation in Afghanistan? Helicopters go down all the time in Afghanistan. Four Chinooks, and several other types this year already. So it would have been simple enough to conceal losses in Pakistan -- just add the names to the list of those killed in the latest crash, and return some well charred bodies for burial. Without a DNA test, the deception would be undetectable.

Who knows, but had the US lost a dozen men in a helicopter crash while infringing Pakistan's sovereignty in a mission having only propaganda value, it would surely have limited the Obama Presidency to a single term, just as the botched Tehran hostages mission, which resulted in the loss of two aircraft and the deaths of eight American servicemen, ended Jimmy Carter's hopes of a second Presidential term.

Further analysis by Aangirfan here.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Mish's Three Cardinal Rules of Stimulus: All Wrong

Michael Shedlock's Global Economic Trends Analysis provides an enjoyably philistine deconstruction of the received economic wisdom, and is often correct.

But, under the heading: Keynesian Clowns Argue For More Stimulus, Mish offers these Cardinal Rules of Stimulus:
  1. First rule of stimulus: It always runs out.
  2. Second Rule of stimulus: All it can do is create a greater pile of debt.
  3. Third rule of stimulus: Spend enough money and interest on debt will eventually consume you.
all of which are wrong.

First, stimulus need not run out provided that the government is able to print its own money (as the US can, but Greece, Italy and Spain cannot) and does not run out of paper and ink or, since this the electronic age, digits.

Second, stimulus need not create debt, provided the government resorts to money printing, aka quantitative easing, rather than borrowing (technically, money printing gives rise to a debt on the books of the Federal Reserve, but the interest paid by the Treasury on that debt is refunded to the Treasury, less expenses).

Third, provided government borrowing is accompanied by sufficient money printing, the value of any debts incurred as a result of stimulus spending will be inflated away at a rate at least equal to the interest rate.

So yes, the US can go on stimulating as long as it wants. Yes, if it does so, it will destroy the savings of those who hold dollars and dollar-denominated debt instruments. But it can go on indefinitely, until the price of a loaf of bread is specified in rail cars full of dollar bills.

Ideally, the stimulus spending should go to projects that yield a return on investment. That way, idle assets, including workers, are made productive in ways that expand the real output of the economy, thus nullifying the inflationary effects of stimulus spending. Unfortunately, so far, the money has mostly gone to swindling banksters and unproductive bureaucratic activities.

Sadly, the US Government seems devoid of ideas for investment in human capital and infrastructure that could radically enhance the future productivity of the nation. Obama could surely earn credit by announcing a national competition for new stimulus ideas, with  multi-million-dollar prizes for the best productivity-boosting proposals.

But in any case, expect stimulus spending and quantitative easing to continue intermittently: not enough to restore full employment, just enough to stave off revolution. The aim is for gradual dollar devaluation, inflation and a reduction in real wages leading to wage convergence between the US and the developing world.

See also:
Why economics is bunk and what that means for the economy
America's inflationary depression
USA versus China: Wage Convergence, Wealth Divergence and Global Hegemony
US Economy: Expecting the Unexpected
USA Boom or Bust: The Next Decade
Why China Booms While America Slumps
China's Economy Already Larger Than America's

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

At the Beach

For some perverse reason, I talk to you every day. Nobody pays me to write this pathetic blog. There’s no advertising or revenue stream from the site. In fact, it costs a bundle just to have it hosted on servers with giant dogs surrounding them. Yeah, occasionally somebody throws me twenty bucks to buy a book, but nobody in Canada survives as an author. Garth Turner

When this blog was launched in March, I thought maybe I could get 100 page views a day.

On Sunday, Canspeccy had 541 page views.

Wow!

Now if I can double that, square it and multiply by two, I'll have a real big blog.

Trouble is, just as momentum builds, I can't think what to say next!

And I notice that the big blogs, Mish, the Slog, Aangirfan, among those I am familiar with, are remarkably diligent, often making multiple substantial posts daily.

Well, Canspeccy will have to remain a little blog because tomorrow I am going to the beach!

After that, I hope to find renewed inspiration, hopefully with a serious attempt at explaining why it is that Carroll Quigley, a brilliant historical analyst and one of America's greatest scholars, is scarcely ever read and, if mentioned, is almost always demeaned by association with nutty conspiracy theorists, for whom he would have had no time whatever.

Be back Friday.

Norway atrocities: Update August 2, 20011

NORWAY shooter: The Israel link YaYa Canada
Cause and effect? Norway F-16's return from Libya The Foreigner
Cause and effect? Norway allegedly promoting terrorism YNET
Norway atrocities: Now here comes the assault on civil liberties SMH
Setting it up for Breivik's insanity defense ABC News
Witnesses to Norway Shootings Aangirfan
Webster Tarpley: NATO declares international anarchy RT
Norway - Inside Job Aangirfan
NORWEGIAN NINJA Aangirfan
They might as well have used a Predator drone Canspeccy
Norway: Inside job Aangirfan

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Monday, August 1, 2011

Why Too Much Diversity May Be Bad For Your Economic Wellbeing

the effect of genetic diversity on income
per capita, adjusted for institutional, cultural, and geographical factors

While globalists, intent on destroying the power of trades unions and driving down wages, work in collaboration with their liberal "anti-racist" enablers for unrestricted human migration from the poorest parts of the World to the rich western nations, few have given serious thought to the consequences of the resulting irreversible destruction of the indigenous peoples of Western nations as racial, cultural and religious entities.

But now we have it from a study sponsored by the National Bureau for Economic Research that enhancing genetic diversity through mass migration from poor countries to rich may be detrimental to the economic well being of the recipient nations. Conversely, it appears, the genetic impact of migration from the rich countries to at least some poor, unlikely though that is to occur, could enhance the economic potential of the recipient countries.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Norway atrocities: They might as well have used a Predator drone and a couple of Hellfire missiles

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

9/11 FOOLS AND LIARS

I do not believe that the US government, or any of its agencies, were responsible for 9/11. It would just need too many people to be involved. Someone would have objected. There are some strange and dangerous people in America, but not in sufficient concentration for this one. They couldn't even keep Watergate quiet ... Craig Murray
Newton's Cradle: Image source.

For a 9/11 inside job, too many people would have been needed, Murray, says. Well, how many people does he think were needed? The official conspiracy theory says 19. The US intelligence agencies have $55 billion a year in overt funding plus whatever they make on drugs and other operations. Does Murray think these folks can bring down foreign governments but they don't have 19 people to bring down an office building?

As for "someone would have objected," that sounds like a good way for someone to get themselves killed. Maybe something Dr. David Kelly should have thought about before telling the world that Tony Blair's Iraq dossier had been "sexed up."

WTC Twin Tower, core column: Image source.

Then Murray has the notion that the Twin Towers couldn't have been bolted together properly. Except they happened to be the tallest buildings in the World when they went up. You think they were put up by a bunch of amateurs without supervision or proper architectural drawings?

Anyhow, it contradicts Newton's law of the conservation of momentum for the towers to have pancaked at free fall speed (and here). And Here's a competent mathematical analysis confirming that the roofline of WTC 7 fell faster than can be explained without invoking explosives to clear the path of descent.

But let's just believe it: a bunch of incompetent Arab pilots without moral conviction, armed only with box cutters, were able to outwit a trillion-dollar air defense system - and no one at the Pentagon had to resign.

Watergate burglars: Image source.

As for Murrays's claim "They couldn't even keep Watergate quiet ", how could they have kept it quiet after security had apprehended the burglars? When your guys are in the nick there's no way of keeping it quiet.

And at that, I think I should leave the subject of 9/11.

I created the Canadian Spectator 2003 as a protest at the lies that launched the Iraq war, including the lies about 9/11. The war has now expanded to many countries. No protest will stop it: only American victory or defeat. Obama has decreed that 9/11 be believed, and believed it will be. Some are ignorant, some are foolish and persuaded by nonsense, some find it in their interest to fall in line. In future, I will save my breath.

From the Canadian Spectator, February 4, 2010. Revised July 31, 2011.

Friday, July 29, 2011

Norway Atrocities: Update July 30, 2011

Norway Atrocities: They Might As Well Have Used a Predator Drone and a Couple of Hellfire Missiles CanSpeccy
Breivic is a Zionist Saruci [Comes with stupid Google content warning]
Organized Political Terrorism: The Norwegian Massacre James Petras
Oslo Crime Rate four times that of New York 21st Century British Nationalism
The Norway Attack - what it means 21st Century British Nationalist
Canada headed for repeat of Norway if policies stay same Edmonton Journal
Unraveling the Mystery of Murderous Minds Theodore Dalrymple
Breivik: A Patsy on Steroids — Not Authentic, but Synthetic Wester Tarpley
Norway Terror Attacks a False Flag Webster Tarpley
The Mysterious Anders Breivik Aangirfan
BREIVIK'S DOUBLE Aangirfan
Was It NATO's Revenge for Norway's Decision to Stop Bombing Libya? Bakom Kulisserna
Killer personifies rise of new far-right FT
European leftists demand supression of civil rights CCC
Norwegian police may have known attack was coming CCC
Norwegian Police say no connection to EDL. BBC is lying CCC
Breivic was a moderate. Media using fake facebook profile CCC
Breivik’s Russian connection and political impact of his deed Freepl.info
Breivik Bought Chemicals in Poland WSJ
The Worrying Rise of the Lone-Wolf Terrorist Time
[If Time says is was the work of just one lone nut, the odds on conspiracy have to be high.]
EDL's online links with Norway killer fuel calls to ban London march Guardian
[Oppose mass immigration and you must be for mass murder.]
Breivic had plastic surgery NY Daily News
Breivik and totalitarian democrats Jerusalem Post
There are those that seek to silence conservative thinkers by making a criminal connection between our writings and the acts of a terrorist.
Norway to fly last Libya mission News 24
Brussels - Norway will fly its last combat mission in Libya on Saturday, two days before the official end of its role in the Nato-led air war, an alliance official told AFP. ...
London has increased its contribution by adding four Tornado jets, effectively making up for the loss of the Norwegian planes.
Italian politician suspended for endorsing Breivik's call for a Chrusade Al Arabiya News
State TV says Mario Borghezio, a leader of the Northern League coalition ally, was suspended for three months from his party. He is a member of the European Parliament and a top regional official of the vehemently anti-immigrant party.
In interviews with mainstream Italian radio shows, Mr. Borghezio lauded much in the manifesto of Anders Behring Breivik ...
Breivic was not a crackpot xenophobe NY Times
...the madman was onto something with his manifesto. ...
Breivik’s manifesto mentions word Armenia 52 times

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Breivic, the British Constitution, Democracy and Violence

The British Constitution is accepted, in England at least, as the symbol for soundness and reliability: and yet its unwritten mysteries and its practical resilience are the despair of theorists. It ... seems to be defined only by the fact that it lives and works. Anon
The only real breach of the British Constitution, Lord Salisbury believed, occurs if the government does something of which the great majority of the population strongly disapproves.

For decades, successive British governments have been doing something of which the great majority of the British population strongly disapproves:

August, 2006: Public wants much harsher immigration policy The Times

April, 2008: Most Britons fear race violence BBC

February, 2009 Cutting immigration top issue for Labour and Tory voters Telegraph

March, 2010:  Voters’ anger over immigration The Sun

February, 2011: Almost two-thirds of white Britons think immigration bad for the UK Independent

August 2011: There ARE too many immigrants in the UK', say seven in 10 Britons Daily Mail

And earlier this year, the Guardian reported that "Huge numbers of Britons would support an anti-immigration English nationalist party if it was [sic] not associated with violence and fascist imagery."

From which it does not take a genius of political strategy to infer that the function of the Cambridge-trained, Masonic clown, Nick Griffin, leader of the anit-immigration, British National Party (an intel agency controlled operation, surely) is to associate every populist policy with thuggish, fascistic, racist antics so that the public dare not express their support either for the party or, more importantly, the policies that that party pretends to espouse.

The circumstances are precisely of the kind that lead to civil unrest and violence. It is in that context that the Breivic atrocities needs to be considered. As we asked before, did they constitute the the ruthless but perfectly sane first blow in a civil insurrection against a pseudo-democratic elite intent on destroying the nations of Europe through mass migration, the better to create a servile helot race under the iron grip of a global plutocratic elite?

Or is Breivic a puppet, a Manchurian candidate, set in motion by one of the hundreds of Western intel agencies. And if so, what was his mission? To turn the populace against the government? To justify an intensification in the propaganda of political correctness that labels opposition to national genocide "racism"? To justify further harsh security measures to repress the population?

Or is there a division in the elite behind the Western pseudodemocracies? Is this a psyop intended to set off a chain reaction that will force a change European policy on mass migration?

See also: Did Anders Breivik strike a blow for or against multicultural genocide in Europe?

Norway Atrocities: Update July 29

Breivic, Islam, the EDL and the BBC 21st Century British Nationalism
BREIVIC'S TRAVELS Aangirfan
RIEDEL EXPLAINS NORWAY ATTACKS Aangirfan
BREIVIK'S MENTOR IN MALTA? Aangirfan
Intel Chief: Breivik acted alone BBC
The Money Trail: The idea that Breivik acted alone is absurd Justin Raimondo
Who funded Breivik? Craig Murray
What turned Anders Breivik into Norway's worst nightmare? Independent
English Defence League forges links with America's Tea Party Guardian
Breivik's online posting in the name Anders Behring Google Web Cache
Was Anders Breivik a ‘fascist’ or something else? Liberal Conspiracy

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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Norway atrocities: Update July 27, 2011

Breivik: Sending a message to the elites Occidental Observer
Jennifer Rubin’s Self-Serving Analysis of the Norwegian Terror Occidental Observer
Breivic atrocity: Nothing but upside for European elites that administer the slow death of their own people Occidental Observer
Norway falling into a trap YaYa Canada
Those reptilian eyes YaYa Canada
Norway: Nice daddy the shooter had YaYa Canada
NORWAY: Disinfo galore YaYa Canada
Norway atrocity: criminal links and speculations Aangirfan
Ideas and the culpability for violence Lew Rockwell
Conspiracy theories emerging Jonathon Kay
Norway collaborated with Mossad in 1973 Lillehammer assassination Guardian

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Why Economics Is Bunk and What That Means for the Economy

Steve Keen is a professor or economics.

Economics, he say, is bunk.

Why?

Because the textbook models of the economy ignore the role of the financial sector in credit creation.

Why do the textbooks ignore private sector credit creation?

Because, they maintain that what banks lend, someone else must first save and deposit with the bank. Thus the creation of a loan has no net effect on aggregate demand: my debt-fueled expenditure is balanced by your thrift-driven saving.

On the contrary, says Keen, your borrowed dollar is either deposited in your bank account or, when you spend it, in someone else's account. That new deposit provides the basis for another loan, which result in another new deposit, and so on ad infinitum. Thus, in the absence of adequate financial sector regulation, the private banking system has the potential for causing unlimited growth in credit and, hence, demand.

It is credit creation, largely by private institutions, says Keen, that drives economic expansion.

In a healthy economy, privately created credit is employed mainly in productive investment, for example, in factories, machinery, software, or R and D, all of which produce income with which to service the debt and eventually pay off the principal.

But if credit expansion is too rapid, money is diverted to speculation, resulting in bubbles of various kinds, for example the tech sector stock market bubble during the 90's, the US housing boom until 2006, and the subsequent bubble in commodities, including gold and silver.

Once the economy enters this Ponzi stage, it is only a matter of time before the price of tulip bulbs, shares in the South Sea Company, or whatever reach absurd heights, falter and then collapse.

As asset prices slump and paper profits turn to losses, people seek to cut their liabilities by reducing debt. The resultant credit contraction accelerates collapse of the bubbles and contraction in the real economy as people divert income from consumption and real investment to debt repayment.

Source: Steve Keen's Debtwatch

Based on this theory, where are we now?

On the evidence of the adjacent chart, in the worst of all possible world's.

Before the Great Depression US private debt equalled about 150% of GDP, growing to about 230% after the stock market crash of '29, as the economy contracted faster than debts were repayed.

Thereafter, US private debt fell almost linearly for more than a decade, i.e., throughout the Great Depression, and throughout the war years, reaching a low of less than 50% of GDP in 1945.

Since 1945, U.S. debt to GDP ratio has grown almost continuously, passing the 1930's peak early in the 2000's and in a near vertical, Greenspan-fueled ascent, peaking at 300% in 2009, falling thereafter to around 265% of GDP.

There is no prospect, Keen believes, in reinflating the credit bubble now. What we should expect, so he predicts, is a long-continued contraction in credit, and stagnation or contraction in the real economy.

How long before the misery is over for America and most of the other western economies, which followed the American lead in financial deregulation and Ponzi economics?

About 15 years, Keen suggests.

In this, I am slightly more optimistic, inasmuch as I believe that the debts will in large part be inflated away through depreciation of both the US dollar and the Euro against the currencies of the low-wage Asian economies, particularly of India and China.

As discussed here, I believe we will see unending money printing, aka quantitative easing, in the US and elsewhere, which will drive down real wages in the Western world, thus restoring some competitiveness with the low-wage economies.

If we assume that half the debt is sloughed off through inflation, then it seems possible that we will see a decent revival in Western economies by the middle of the present decade.

By that time, our standard of living will have been very much reduced. But at least we will see a return to something like full employment.

See also:
America's inflationary depression
USA versus China: Wage Convergence, Wealth Divergence and Global Hegemony
US Economy: Expecting the Unexpected
USA Boom or Bust: The Next Decade
Why China Booms While America Slumps
China's Economy Already Larger Than America's

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Elizabeth Wright

Elizabeth Wright

I was raised in the 50's in the Southwest of England, about the whitest part of what was then a an almost entirely white country, yet I grew up with a prejudice about black Americans. My view was acquired subliminally through my father, a sensitive man, even hyper-sensitive, who campaigned vigorously for the anti-war movement during the 1930's, but who felt compelled, once war was declared, to serve in the armed forces.

Altogether, he must have been an odd recruit. Old enough to be called uncle by most of the fellows, at heart still a pacifist, and taking with him on induction into the RAF copies of David Henry Thoreau's Walden and Mark Twain's Huck Finn.

In due course, I tried Thoreau, who I found vaguely uplifting but too dull to finish. Twain, however, became my lifelong companion, who instilled in me a warm regard for black Americans from Huck's companion, the nigger Jim, to Twain's friend, Booker T. Washington, a man who played an important role in providing America's newly liberated slaves the opportunity of self advancement through education.

To that list, with other names accumulated over the years, I have added Elizabeth Wright, whose blog I found only recently. Her calmly expressed but definite views I find both eminently sensible and nicely expressed. Elizabeth Wright is a conservative who combines a pride in her own race with a love of, and concern about, the greater American society in which she lives.

Today, Elizabeth Wright is awaiting a place in a cancer hospice. I offer her my kindest good wishes during this difficult time.

Postscript:

Elizabeth Wright died on August 19, 2011.

The Breivik Atrocity: Update July 26

The Rise And Rapid Fall Of Blue Labour’s Immigration Patriotism Steve Sailer
A Firebell in the Night for Norway Patrick Buchanan
Norway's challenge: It's the multiculturalism Jerusalem Post
Breivik's Lawyer: My Client Probably Insane? NY Times
Don't abuse the mentally ill by equating murder with madness Nick Clark 
Most Norwegians want an end to immigration now The Norway Post
Is Anders Breivik Like Timothy McVeigh—Or Baruch Goldstein? Peter Brimlow
Breivik in court: Authorities may have something to hide Global Research 
Norway: Strategy of Tension Aangirfan
After Oslo: Time to Crack Down On Mossad Terrorism Wayne Madsen
Never Trust a Man in Uniform William Norman Grigg
Hey look: Breivik has contaminated everyone we hate Craig murray
Illegal aliens: why not shoot them? JAY

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